A Strike in Jordan, and a War Already Judged

Iranian missiles reached an American base in Jordan overnight. Fox News, relaying Washington's account, reported that US air defenses intercepted all but one. That figure should be read with caution: US and mainstream accounts of these exchanges have repeatedly proven wrong, and several of the analysts we track dispute this one, as the sourcing below lays out. By morning, President Trump had told Fox News that the United States will answer forcefully: "We're going to hit them hard." Six months into the war, the sequence has a familiar shape: a strike, a contested interception tally, a promise of escalation. What has changed is how little of the war's original design still stands, at least in the judgment of the analysts we track.

Six Months of War, Measured Against Its Aims

Daniel Davis, speaking hours after the attack, predicted an American response within the day¹. He added that Tehran is not improvising: Iran has already war-gamed a larger reply to the next US strike and holds a prepared target list to execute it quickly². Larry Johnson disputed the interception claims outright, saying Iranian missiles had already struck hangars housing US-linked F-16s and F-35s in Jordan despite official assurances of a clean intercept³. His broader caution was about the category of action itself: "There's no such thing as limited military strikes. That's like saying minor surgery."⁴

Behind the day's exchange sits a starker accounting. John Mearsheimer ran the audit in plain terms: "We went into the war with four objectives. We have achieved none of those objectives. We are zero for four."⁵ He called the president's claim to control the Strait of Hormuz "ludicrous"⁶ and concluded that the Iranians are largely in control of the waterway⁷. Jeffrey Sachs reached the same destination by a shorter route. The strait, he said, is basically closed⁸, the American effort has failed, and the United States should simply go home⁹. Johnson described what that failure looks like in practice: Iran and Oman now set the actual shipping regimen in the strait, with Iran collecting fees on vessels entering the Persian Gulf, an arrangement he expects to become standard procedure¹⁰. Mearsheimer's summary judgment was historical: a disaster worse than Iraq¹¹.

“Both the US and Israel are at the end of their endgame.”

Has the United States already lost the war with Iran?

GB

George Beebe, Glenn Diesen

The war with Iran, like the war in Ukraine, has effectively already been lost; ending it requires enlisting Russia and China, who hold more leverage over Tehran than Washington does.

JB

Jacques Baud, Dialogue Works

Gunboat diplomacy cannot produce peace, and the conflict will likely drag on past the November midterms.

Andrei Martyanov, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive

Sanctions will not topple Tehran; Russian and Chinese backing sustains an increasingly de-dollarized Iran.

Nate (Canadian Prepper), Canadian Prepper

Iran is resisting more effectively than Washington admits, and troop redeployments point toward a ground operation at Kharg Island.

The Air War Turns on Ukraine's Grid

The second front received less attention yesterday and arguably deserved more. Alexander Mercouris described a conflict that now has every appearance of continuing until Russia achieves a military victory¹². The evidence he assembled is granular. A Ukrainian government minister has admitted that 90 percent of the warehouses and logistical facilities in Kiev have been destroyed¹³, and Ukraine's daily loss rate, by his reading of Budanov's own mobilization figures, runs to roughly a thousand men a day¹⁴.

The Duran reported that Russia's defense ministry has received instructions from Putin to begin massive strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities¹⁵, and that the ground war is compounding the damage from above: Sumy looks increasingly likely to be encircled, while Russian forces close a cauldron around Dobropillya¹⁶. Glenn Diesen drew the strategic conclusion: Russia's air campaign is eliminating the outcome many in the West still consider the acceptable floor, a heavily armed "steel porcupine" Ukraine that survives the war intact¹⁷.

The season matters. Sachs expects a winter in which Ukraine suffers a breakdown of its most basic economy¹⁸. Mearsheimer, for his part, sees a serious possibility that the war ends by the end of this year or early next, on terms set by the side still advancing¹⁹. Among the analysts we track, the argument over Ukraine is no longer about direction. It is about timing.

Oil Arithmetic and a Draining Reserve

The war's costs are arriving through the fuel markets, and here the convergence is nearly total. Sachs noted that oil prices rose almost 3 percent on the escalation and expects them to keep climbing²⁰. Johnson's assessment of the American cushion was blunter: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has effectively run out²¹, with perhaps 25 days of draw remaining²². The administration's touted answer, Venezuelan crude, he dismissed as "the intent to steal Venezuela's oil, because they can't get it out of the ground in any quantity," years away from reaching any refinery²³.

Davis reduced the problem to its physical core: "You can't talk your way out of it. You can't print dollars to get your way out of it, cuz you can't print oil. You either have it or you don't."²⁴ Europe faces its own version of the squeeze. The Duran reported gas storage on the continent at critically low levels heading into winter, with heavily indebted governments no longer able to cushion price shocks the way they did in 2022²⁵.

Sachs closed the loop on the instrument Washington keeps reaching for. Every round of sanctions, he argued, accelerates the non-dollar payment system that renders the next round weaker: a weapon that consumes itself with use²⁶.

Sources

1. Daniel Davis, *Daniel Davis / Deep Dive* · Predicted the intercepted Iranian attack on the US base in Jordan would draw an American response within hours watch ▶ 13:03
2. Daniel Davis, *Daniel Davis / Deep Dive* · Said the next US strike will be bigger and Iran already holds a target list to retaliate quickly afterward watch ▶ 15:44
3. Larry Johnson, *Dialogue Works* · Said Iranian missiles already struck US-linked F-16/F-35 hangars in Jordan despite claims of full interception watch ▶
4. Larry Johnson, *Dialogue Works* · "There's no such thing as limited military strikes. That's like saying minor surgery." watch ▶ 6:45
5. John Mearsheimer, *Judging Freedom* · Counted the war's four stated objectives and found none achieved: "We are zero for four." watch ▶ 13:01
6. John Mearsheimer, *Judging Freedom* · Called Trump's claim that the US controls the Strait of Hormuz "ludicrous" watch ▶ 12:43
7. John Mearsheimer, *Judging Freedom* · Judged the Iranians to be largely in control of the strait watch ▶ 8:51
8. Jeffrey Sachs, *Judging Freedom* · Said the Strait of Hormuz is basically closed watch ▶ 5:06
9. Jeffrey Sachs, *Judging Freedom* · Said the US effort has failed and the United States needs to go home watch ▶ 4:03
10. Larry Johnson, *Judging Freedom* · Said Iran and Oman set the strait's shipping regimen, with Iran collecting fees on vessels, an arrangement becoming standard watch ▶ 11:05
11. John Mearsheimer, *Judging Freedom* · Called the Iran war a disaster worse than the Iraq disaster watch ▶ 21:15
12. Alexander Mercouris, *Alexander Mercouris* · Said the conflict has every appearance of continuing until Russia achieves a military victory watch ▶ 0:17
13. Alexander Mercouris, *Alexander Mercouris* · Reported a Ukrainian minister admitting 90% of Kiev's warehouses and logistical facilities are destroyed watch ▶ 10:16
14. Alexander Mercouris, *Alexander Mercouris* · Put Ukraine's daily loss rate at around a thousand men a day, based on Budanov's mobilization figures watch ▶ 50:00
15. The Duran, *The Duran* · Reported Putin's instruction to the Russian defense ministry to begin massive strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities watch ▶ 8:59
16. The Duran, *The Duran* · Said Sumy looks likely to be encircled soon and the Russians are close to establishing a cauldron at Dobropillya watch ▶ 40:40
17. Glenn Diesen, *Glenn Diesen* · Said Russia's strategic air campaign is eliminating the "steel porcupine" outcome the West wants watch ▶ 2:47
18. Jeffrey Sachs, *Judging Freedom* · Predicted Ukraine is entering a winter with a breakdown of its most basic economy watch ▶ 24:44
19. John Mearsheimer, *Judging Freedom* · Sees a serious possibility the Ukraine war ends by the end of the year or early next watch ▶ 25:13
20. Jeffrey Sachs, *Judging Freedom* · Noted oil prices rose almost 3% on the Iran escalation and will continue to rise watch ▶ 3:56
21. Larry Johnson, *Judging Freedom* · Said the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has effectively run out watch ▶ 14:00
22. Larry Johnson, *Judging Freedom* · Estimated perhaps another 25 days left to draw from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve watch ▶ 12:46
23. Larry Johnson, *Judging Freedom* · Called the Venezuela plan "the intent to steal Venezuela's oil," with the heavy crude years from reaching a refinery watch ▶ 17:29
24. Daniel Davis, *Daniel Davis / Deep Dive* · "You can't print dollars to get your way out of it, cuz you can't print oil." watch ▶ 36:09
25. The Duran, *The Duran* · Reported Europe's gas storage critically low, with indebted governments unable to cushion price shocks as in 2022 watch ▶ 21:14
26. Jeffrey Sachs, *Judging Freedom* · Argued sanctions accelerate the non-dollar payment system, weakening the weapon with each use watch ▶ 8:53

By Ruins Report, a daily synthesis of what our tracked analysts said, not original reporting. Every numbered claim is sourced, dated, and timestamped above.