Active Conflict — Year 4
Ukraine War
Live tracking of Russia's invasion of Ukraine — the conflict reshaping the global order.
Conflict Duration
4y 254d 06h 23m
Since Feb 24, 2022 · 05:00 UTCGold (XAU/USD)$4,138/oz▲ $2,330 (128.9%) since Feb 23, 2022
Pre-War Baseline$1,808/ozGold · Feb 23, 2022
Live Map
Source: DeepStateMap · Also see the live event map on LiveUAMap
Coverage
Daily Debrief
500 Drones on St Petersburg as Trump Waives Sanctions
Trump waives the Graham Act and pitches Europe on Russian gas as Kiev sends 500 drones at St Petersburg; the analysts see a fuel-price retreat Kiev can spoil, not a peace.
Berlin and Paris Want a Trade “Kill Switch.” China’s Internet Shrugs.
A joint letter from Merz and Macron asks Brussels for the power to slam the EU market shut. Chinese commenters see a Europe that keeps hurting itself....
The Kingdom of Sand
Saudi Arabia has kept its half of a fifty year bargain. The United States has not. What comes next may end the petrodollar either way....
China Watches the West Burn Its Emergency Oil
The West is draining its emergency reserves to tame diesel prices before winter. Chinese analysts have done the arithmetic, and they are not reassured....
The Gangster at the Podium
The president promised to send Iran and its future generations to hell. The damage was not to Iran. It was to the United States....
The Saudis Know They Lost. Europe Doesn't.
A rational actor counts the cost, swallows its pride, and calls its enemy. Europe is about to demonstrate what an irrational one does....
Hegemony Is Not a Policy. It Is an Identity.
Washington knows the Iran war is lost and the Ukraine war is lost. It keeps fighting both because ending them would require its leaders to become different people....
Sacrificing the Daughters: The Moral Bankruptcy of Outsourced Warfare
As Ukraine faces a catastrophic manpower shortage, the Western push to conscript women reveals the profound moral decay of outsourcing a war of attrition....
The End of Air Supremacy
For decades, U.S. power meant control of the sky. Ukraine and Iran suggest that era has ended....
The Paper Tiger Complex: Why America Can No Longer Build for War
The limits of American power are no longer abstract. They are visible in depleted inventories, delayed production, and exposed bases....
How Ukraine and Iran Are Becoming One Conflict
The wars in Ukraine and Iran were once treated as separate crises. Increasingly, they look like two fronts in a single, expanding conflict....
Why So Many Westerners See Russia as Evil by Default
For many in the West, Russia is no longer a country to be understood but a permanent symbol of evil. That shift has consequences far beyond Ukraine....
Why Iran’s Hormuz Move Matters Far Beyond the Gulf
Iran says stop. The U.S. says it is open. The world now has to decide whom to believe....
Russia’s Restraint in Ukraine May Have Been Its Biggest Mistake
Moscow spent years trying to contain the war in Ukraine. The result may have been the opposite: a longer war, weaker deterrence, and a far more dangerous escalation....
Why the Next Global Conflict May Not Look Like a World War
The West Is Not Marching Toward World War III. It Is Drifting Toward Something Stranger and More Dangerous....
Why Putin Announced a China Visit Right After Trump Left Beijing
Trump leaves Beijing. Putin announces he is next....
The Stories We Refuse to Tell About Ukraine
“Russia invaded” is true. It is also incomplete. And incomplete truths have a way of prolonging wars rather than ending them....
In Lebanon, Israel’s Power Meets Its Limits
Israel can devastate southern Lebanon from the air. What it has never proven is that it can turn ruin into lasting control....
What the West Sees in Gaza and Refuses to See in Ukraine
There is a revealing asymmetry in how many Western audiences process modern war....
Ukraine Began the Unraveling. Iran Is Accelerating It
The war in Ukraine exposed the strain on U.S. power. A conflict involving Iran may be showing just how far that erosion has already gone....
US Stumbles, Russia and China Step Up in the Middle East
The US stumbled in the Middle East. Now, China and Russia are stepping in. Discover what Zhihu users are saying....
How Long Can a Country in Permanent Crisis Keep Fighting?
Ukraine has defied predictions of collapse. But endurance built on coercion, foreign money, and improvisation is not the same as stability....
The Footage
Clips tagged to this theatre, sourced and dated, and paired where they fit with the calls our tracked analysts have made.
Ukraine’s manpower crisis
16 clipsThe policy and the street: Washington’s envoy floats mobilizing women while recruitment officers pull men off the road. A thread on how deep Ukraine’s manpower problem now runs.
Russian strikes on Kiev
11 clipsA run of overnight Russian strikes on the Kiev region: explosions on the skyline, an ammunition depot cooking off, warehouses and logistics hubs ablaze, and the morning after.
The push to escalate in Ukraine
4 clipsAs the front deteriorates, Western voices call for deeper strikes, Tomahawks, and seizing Russia’s frozen billions, the escalation the analysts we track expect to bring consequences.
The Witkoff and Kushner mission
4 clipsThe envoys’ September trip to Moscow and Kiev in the participants’ own words: Trump on why he sent them, the arrival in Kiev, Kushner on the trilateral format he wants back, and Fico on the deal the West stopped in 2022. Mercouris and Sleboda both predicted the visit would end without a ceasefire.
Canada’s 100-year pact with Ukraine
3 clipsZelensky lands in Canada and leaves Calgary with a declaration committing both countries to a hundred-year partnership built on drones, defence industry, trade and critical minerals. Carney marks the day by recirculating the line he delivered in Kiev a year earlier. A hundred-year horizon, signed in the fifth year of a war the analysts we track expect to be decided far sooner than that.
