Active Conflict — Year 4

Ukraine War

Live tracking of Russia's invasion of Ukraine — the conflict reshaping the global order.

Conflict Duration
4y 208d 02h 45m
Since Feb 24, 2022 · 05:00 UTC
Gold (XAU/USD)$4,379/oz $2,571 (142.2%) since Feb 23, 2022
Pre-War Baseline$1,808/ozGold · Feb 23, 2022

Live Map

Source: LiveUAMap · Updates in real time

Coverage

Daily Debrief

The War That Turned on Riyadh

A Saudi F-15 down over Marib, an American back channel to the Houthis that gives the kingdom nothing, and oil exports to Europe pushed out to November. Four analysts read the same evidence and arrive at the same place: Yemen is no longer Saudi Arabia's war to win, and Washington is not going to save it.

The Saudis Know They Lost. Europe Doesn't.

The Saudis Know They Lost. Europe Doesn't.

A rational actor counts the cost, swallows its pride, and calls its enemy. Europe is about to demonstrate what an irrational one does....

Hegemony Is Not a Policy. It Is an Identity.

Hegemony Is Not a Policy. It Is an Identity.

Washington knows the Iran war is lost and the Ukraine war is lost. It keeps fighting both because ending them would require its leaders to become different people....

Ukraine's Two Spy Agencies Just Turned on Each Other

Ukraine's Two Spy Agencies Just Turned on Each Other

Ukraine's Spies Shot at Each Other in Kyiv. Chinese Netizens Say They've Seen This Movie Before....

Sacrificing the Daughters: The Moral Bankruptcy of Outsourced Warfare

Sacrificing the Daughters: The Moral Bankruptcy of Outsourced Warfare

As Ukraine faces a catastrophic manpower shortage, the Western push to conscript women reveals the profound moral decay of outsourcing a war of attrition....

The End of Air Supremacy

The End of Air Supremacy

For decades, U.S. power meant control of the sky. Ukraine and Iran suggest that era has ended....

A Japanese Combat Unit in Ukraine Alarms China’s Internet

A Japanese Combat Unit in Ukraine Alarms China’s Internet

Japanese Fighters in Ukraine? Why China’s Internet Is Buzzing Over a Tiny Unit With Big Symbolism...

The Paper Tiger Complex: Why America Can No Longer Build for War

The Paper Tiger Complex: Why America Can No Longer Build for War

The limits of American power are no longer abstract. They are visible in depleted inventories, delayed production, and exposed bases....

How Ukraine and Iran Are Becoming One Conflict

How Ukraine and Iran Are Becoming One Conflict

The wars in Ukraine and Iran were once treated as separate crises. Increasingly, they look like two fronts in a single, expanding conflict....

Why So Many Westerners See Russia as Evil by Default

Why So Many Westerners See Russia as Evil by Default

For many in the West, Russia is no longer a country to be understood but a permanent symbol of evil. That shift has consequences far beyond Ukraine....

Why Iran’s Hormuz Move Matters Far Beyond the Gulf

Why Iran’s Hormuz Move Matters Far Beyond the Gulf

Iran says stop. The U.S. says it is open. The world now has to decide whom to believe....

Russia’s Restraint in Ukraine May Have Been Its Biggest Mistake

Russia’s Restraint in Ukraine May Have Been Its Biggest Mistake

Moscow spent years trying to contain the war in Ukraine. The result may have been the opposite: a longer war, weaker deterrence, and a far more dangerous escalation....

Why the Next Global Conflict May Not Look Like a World War

Why the Next Global Conflict May Not Look Like a World War

The West Is Not Marching Toward World War III. It Is Drifting Toward Something Stranger and More Dangerous....

Why Putin Announced a China Visit Right After Trump Left Beijing

Why Putin Announced a China Visit Right After Trump Left Beijing

Trump leaves Beijing. Putin announces he is next....

The Stories We Refuse to Tell About Ukraine

The Stories We Refuse to Tell About Ukraine

“Russia invaded” is true. It is also incomplete. And incomplete truths have a way of prolonging wars rather than ending them....

In Lebanon, Israel’s Power Meets Its Limits

In Lebanon, Israel’s Power Meets Its Limits

Israel can devastate southern Lebanon from the air. What it has never proven is that it can turn ruin into lasting control....

What the West Sees in Gaza and Refuses to See in Ukraine

What the West Sees in Gaza and Refuses to See in Ukraine

There is a revealing asymmetry in how many Western audiences process modern war....

Ukraine Began the Unraveling. Iran Is Accelerating It

Ukraine Began the Unraveling. Iran Is Accelerating It

The war in Ukraine exposed the strain on U.S. power. A conflict involving Iran may be showing just how far that erosion has already gone....

US Stumbles, Russia and China Step Up in the Middle East

US Stumbles, Russia and China Step Up in the Middle East

The US stumbled in the Middle East. Now, China and Russia are stepping in. Discover what Zhihu users are saying....

How Long Can a Country in Permanent Crisis Keep Fighting?

How Long Can a Country in Permanent Crisis Keep Fighting?

Ukraine has defied predictions of collapse. But endurance built on coercion, foreign money, and improvisation is not the same as stability....

The Footage

Clips tagged to this theatre, sourced and dated, and paired where they fit with the calls our tracked analysts have made.

The full archive →

Ukraine’s manpower crisis

14 clips

The policy and the street: Washington’s envoy floats mobilizing women while recruitment officers pull men off the road. A thread on how deep Ukraine’s manpower problem now runs.

Russian strikes on Kiev

9 clips

A run of overnight Russian strikes on the Kiev region: explosions on the skyline, an ammunition depot cooking off, warehouses and logistics hubs ablaze, and the morning after.

The push to escalate in Ukraine

4 clips

As the front deteriorates, Western voices call for deeper strikes, Tomahawks, and seizing Russia’s frozen billions, the escalation the analysts we track expect to bring consequences.

The Witkoff and Kushner mission

4 clips

The envoys’ September trip to Moscow and Kiev in the participants’ own words: Trump on why he sent them, the arrival in Kiev, Kushner on the trilateral format he wants back, and Fico on the deal the West stopped in 2022. Mercouris and Sleboda both predicted the visit would end without a ceasefire.

Canada’s 100-year pact with Ukraine

3 clips

Zelensky lands in Canada and leaves Calgary with a declaration committing both countries to a hundred-year partnership built on drones, defence industry, trade and critical minerals. Carney marks the day by recirculating the line he delivered in Kiev a year earlier. A hundred-year horizon, signed in the fifth year of a war the analysts we track expect to be decided far sooner than that.

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