Nate — Canadian Prepper

Nate still reads bond yields and the war as linked, treating the push by Iran to exit the NPT as the tell that it is close to finishing a bomb, and says Iran has outwitted Washington through its decentralized command as the war drags toward a costly stalemate rather than capitulation. He now attributes the strike that destroyed a pumping station on the Saudi East-West pipeline to Iran-backed Iraqi militias rather than the Houthis that Saudi Arabia is publicly blaming, and reads the September 11 remarks by Pete Hegseth tying Iran to 9/11 as a false pretext echoing the Iraq-war playbook. He says nobody is in control of the escalation any more. Now says the strikes on the Aramco pumping stations and the East-West pipeline are far worse than reported and mark the effective end of Saudi oil dominance.

A Russian mall strike drawing near-zero Western coverage = dangerous desensitization; Ukraine now hitting critical refinery components (Perm), not just tanks, so real fuel shortages; escalation "out of control." Reads the war as a resource grab Europe has no real interest in ending, notes Ukrainian drones reaching 3,000km, and flags Germany moving to round up draft-age Ukrainian men for return to the front. Now tracks Ukraine’s lengthening missile reach (Flamingo, FP7, the bomber strikes) as a campaign steadily degrading Russian oil and military infrastructure, with a Russian refinery burning. Now says Ukraine is absorbing huge drone barrages and holding for now but will eventually collapse, after which he expects the Baltic states and Poland to be exposed next.

Building fixed "unsinkable carriers", a 1,500-acre military island off Hainan in about a year, positioning for war once the US commits ground troops in Iran. Argues the real purpose of the Middle East campaign is choking off China’s energy supply, and that the strategy is unravelling as the Houthi advance toward Bab el-Mandeb threatens a second chokepoint. Reads China as winning through trade and quiet discounted-oil buying while Russia and the US are drawn into shooting wars.

Nate still reads carrier presence as the leading indicator of intent and says the failure to subdue Iran quickly has shattered the aura of US military invincibility, with losing this war meaning losing global hegemony outright. He now frames the deliberately uncontrollable multi-front Middle East war as a proxy way for Washington to strangle the oil lifeline of a rising China it cannot confront directly, run by a belligerent president atop what Nate calls a sinking ship. He says Washington has lost control of the escalation it created and has no coherent strategy left. Now reads Europe's sudden coordinated war preparations and Putin's seizure of Western corporate assets as a bifurcation into a multipolar world, and expects a triggering event in Europe within two months that pulls NATO further in.

Nate still reads spiking yields as proof the Bessent intervention failed, calling it QE by another name and highly inflationary, with yields near 5% against roughly $40 trillion of debt while Chinese yields stay far lower. He says the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is nearly exhausted, compounding a serious oil supply shock from the East-West pipeline strike and reduced Hormuz throughput, and expects Saudi Arabia and Aramco to downplay the damage to avoid spooking investors. People, he says, are simply not fans of the US dollar at this point. Now says the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is draining toward critically low levels, diesel and petrol are spiking, world oil inventories are falling at a record pace and a gap is opening between physical and paper oil prices.