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Andrei Martyanov

Andrei Martyanov

Andrei Martyanov is a Soviet-born military and naval analyst who graduated from the Kirov Naval Academy and served as an officer in the Soviet Coast Guard before emigrating to the United States in the mid-1990s, where he has worked in the aerospace industry. He writes the blog Reminiscence of the Future and is the author of several books on military affairs, including Losing Military Supremacy, arguing that Russia and China have overtaken the US in key areas of weapons technology and force structure. He is a regular guest on the Dialogue Works program, where he makes the case that US military capability lags well behind its public self-image.

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Where they stand

A short read of where Andrei Martyanov lands on each front we follow, drawn from their recent appearances and refreshed whenever they turn up in a debrief.

Iran
The confrontation with Iran is an "absolute unmitigated catastrophe for the United States"; Russia and China will not allow Iran to fall. Now says Iran controls the pace of escalation and is inflicting real damage, and puts the share of Iranian missiles getting through Patriot PAC-3 defences at up to 30 to 35 percent rather than the official 2 percent.
as of 2026-09-10
Ukraine & Russia
Ukraine is militarily collapsing (Slaviansk-Kramatorsk being surrounded, Black Sea shipping under Russian control) and the US will end up the "main loser" however it extricates itself. Says recon groups are already on the outskirts of Kramatorsk and Slaviansk, and once they fall there is no serious line left before Pavlohrad.
as of 2026-08-31
Israel
The United States is "not independent" but effectively "the extension of Israel," which he calls a genocidal entity that understands only force. Now says Israel and Netanyahu effectively control Trump and Congress, which he calls "Knesset 2.0", and that the Israel-driven war on Iran has exposed American military failure rather than achieving Israel’s aims.
as of 2026-09-10
East Asia
China avoids direct confrontation but provides "substantial help" to keep Iran from falling, reinforcing the Russia-China-Iran partnership. Now reads Iran’s demonstrated ability to threaten a moving carrier as a preview for China watchers: defences that cannot stop Iranian anti-ship missiles will not stop China’s.
as of 2026-09-10
American power
Washington has "no leverage whatsoever" over Moscow, evident in the CIA director’s message-boy reception there, because decades of "negative selection" have hollowed out the US officer corps into a paper tiger incapable of real combined-arms warfare. Meanwhile a genuine Eurasian economic core is forming around Russia, China and Iran, with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization mattering more going forward than BRICS. Now calls the United States militarily obsolete and in a "death spiral" of institutional collapse, with Western dominance simply over.
as of 2026-09-10
The global economy
The American economy is inflated roughly 200% by finance, insurance and real estate, while the real resource-and-industry economy has shifted to Eurasia. Now says the petrodollar rested on a mythology of American military power that has been exposed, that America’s real export is inflation, and that Russia, China, Japan and South Korea are all offloading US treasuries.
as of 2026-09-10

Recent appearances

Iran’s IRGC navy attacks an American saildrone in Hormuz
Dialogue Works (Nima Alkhorshid) · 2026-09-10
2026-08-31 · Daniel Davis / Deep Divewatch ↗
Russia’s nonstop drones hit Kiev (w/ Daniel Davis)
2026-08-27 · Dialogue Works (Nima Alkhorshid)watch ↗
No end in sight: inside Washington’s growing alarm