Out of Patriots in Kiev, Out of Money in Brussels

Russian drones struck western Ukraine overnight into Friday 16 October in two waves, about 100 aircraft in the first and about 200 in the second by the Ukrainian count, and among them, Alexander Mercouris noted, were jet-powered variants of the Geran that put the far west of the country inside their range.¹ CNN reported that Ukraine had expended the last of its Patriot PAC-3 interceptors defending Kiev against the large strike a few days earlier, about 40 missiles, as many as 24 of them possibly Zircons, of which the Ukrainians claimed four intercepted.² Zelensky spent the day in Brussels asking the European Council for 70 billion euros more and warning of 20 million further refugees if Ukraine falls,³ and the Belgian prime minister, Bart De Wever, says the money for Ukraine has run out: the 90 billion euro loan agreed last year is spent or committed.⁴ Trump, on Newsmax, said he is not a fan of Zelensky, that "they destroyed the country," and that Ukraine should hold elections,⁵ days after telling Ukraine to find a new leader. The question these facts pose is whether Washington is actually walking away from Ukraine, or only handing the bill to a Europe that can no longer pay it.

The air-defense facts come first, because they are the ones no budget can fix. "Russian drones can now operate across the entire territory of Ukraine. No part of Ukraine is out of reach of these drones," Mercouris said,⁶ and he read the debris found near Kharkov, which appeared to include a receiver for Russia's Rassvet satellite constellation, now about 30 satellites against 16 earlier, as the reason why.⁷ He was deeply skeptical of the four claimed interceptions and expects the skepticism to spread: "the days of uncritical belief both within Ukraine and in the West in Ukraine's figures for interceptions of drones and missiles are probably ending."⁸ The PAC-3 is not produced in Europe, the United States has none to spare, and Spain and Greece, which hold older Patriot interceptors, have refused to give them up despite pressure from Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas.⁹ His summary of the position was deliberately unsentimental: "It's a question of resources, of available weapon systems, never a question of will."¹⁰

Daniel Davis set the same facts against the plans being drawn up around them. He played Zelensky asking Washington for anti-ballistic missiles to protect energy facilities for the duration of the diesel arrangement, and saying he had not received them, and noted that Kallas has now said none of her European counterparts is willing to part with PAC-3s.¹¹ "Russia's offensive missiles are more capable than our defensive technology. That's just a fact,"¹² he said. What arrived instead of missiles was a proposal. David Ignatius described in the Washington Post a joint American and European peace plan built on four pillars: a reconstruction framework run through the World Bank and BlackRock, Article 5-style guarantees, an energy arrangement integrating Russia, Ukraine and Europe, and a ceasefire on the current line.¹³ Davis's objection was to the premise. "You can't defend against a missile with words, dude,"¹⁴ and of the plan's authors: "This is profound arrogance and stupidity on our side because we think we are so brilliant that we're going to come up with something that Europe, Ukraine, and Russia can all agree on."¹⁵ On the reconstruction pillar he was blunter still: "As long as BlackRock is at the center of this, this is all about milking that cow indefinitely."¹⁶

It would be easy to read Trump's remarks as the start of an American exit. Rachel Blevins does not, and her reasoning is the pivot of the day. "I don't see a world in which the US is actually backing off of its overall support for Ukraine. If it had more support to give, it would do so."¹⁷ The interceptors are not being withheld; they do not exist, and in her account the Patriot was never doing what Kiev claimed for it: "Ukraine is not using the Patriot missile system to successfully shoot down Russian ballistic missiles. That just isn't happening."¹⁸ What the timing tells her is that an overstretched Washington, fighting in Iran and Yemen, wants the proxy war carried by Europe,¹⁹ and Europe's answer so far is its 22nd sanctions package. "22 packages of sanctions. You're telling me you're going to do something magical in number 22 that wasn't in the first 21?"²⁰ Mercouris, speaking on The Duran, went further against the abandonment story: "Under Trump, Ukraine is effectively receiving the same amount of military aid from the West as it did under Joe Biden,"²¹ and most of the reports of Starlink and intelligence being cut "are just being put out by Zelensky."²²

If the American contribution is unchanged and the European one is spent, the question becomes who owns the war, and here the analysts we track converge on an uncomfortable answer. Alex Christoforou's reading is that the project is passing out of Trump's hands and into those of the CIA and the neoconservatives, with the West shifting to covert and information war.²³ The European talk of "hybrid attacks" he hears as an announcement: "to me it's them saying we're going to start a covert dirty war and it's going to happen fairly soon."²⁴ Joe Kent made the institutional version of the point: Trump wants out, but has not forced the intelligence community, the Pentagon and NATO to comply, and until he does Putin will keep advancing.²⁵ Larry Johnson, who briefed a Russia-convened Arria-formula meeting of the UN Security Council on Wednesday 14 October, described an American representative whose tone toward Russia was conciliatory while Denmark, Latvia, Greece and France were scathing,²⁶ and concluded that Europe and Russia "will be in a hot war within a year based upon their attitude and approach."²⁷ Christoforou said he can state "as fact that there are very powerful forces in Europe, very high up, that do want a conflict with Russia."²⁸ Scott Ritter was the one voice to take the exit at face value, judging Zelensky's public attack on Trump fatal: "If the United States walks away from Ukraine, it'll just hasten the inevitable collapse of Ukraine."²⁹

Is Washington leaving Ukraine, or passing the bill?

Karen Kwiatkowski, Rachel Blevins

"Ukraine is going to lose. It's going to cede a great deal of territory to Russia. It's going to cede its ambitions to be a member of NATO."

Glenn Diesen, Mario Nawfal

"We made an enemy out of Russia and now the US is pulling back"; the latest body handovers ran about 40 Russian dead for 1,000 Ukrainian.

Lawrence Wilkerson, Mario Nawfal

Putin will not accept a 30-day ceasefire in which Kiev could spend some of the 93 billion euros available through the EU on the front lines.

Jeffrey Sachs, Glenn Diesen

"NATO is falling apart and Europe doesn't understand why it's falling apart."

The deeper problem is that each sponsor's share of this war was always defined by what it had on the shelf. Washington's share was hardware, and the shelf is bare in the one category that decides whether Kiev keeps its lights on. Europe's share was money, and the money is committed. What remains to Europe is a 22nd sanctions package, the vocabulary of hybrid war and a four-pillar plan written in Washington, and what remains to Kiev is a demand that none of it can meet. "What Zelensky wants and what he's made perfectly clear that he wants is that he wants it all," Mercouris said.³⁰ Washington is not walking away so much as declining to buy what it no longer has, and the bill is passing to a Europe that cannot pay it in interceptors or in euros. The worry Johnson and Christoforou share is what Europe will pay in instead.

“Ukraine is out of interceptors. How are you going to fight a war without any air defense? You can't.”

Pickaxe Mountain named, a gas line to Kaliningrad and a carrier gone from the Pacific

Trump named Pickaxe Mountain as a possible target for the MOAB in a Newsmax interview, a day after the plan to drop one was reported, and Israel Hayom reported mobile bomb shelters being set up around Tel Aviv.³¹ Scott Ritter does not expect the bomb to matter where it lands: "It's not going to do anything to Pickaxe Mountain, but it doesn't need to. It just has to create the perception of decisive American military intervention."³² His expectation is a managed exchange: "I think we may see a carefully choreographed series of events that has the United States dropping these bombs, hitting some other targets, has Iran retaliating with ballistic missiles, and then both sides stopping."³³ Anthony Aguilar put the same reading in electoral terms: "What we're hearing from the president of the United States is window dressing to show a position of strength before the US midterm elections."³⁴

Lithuania is now discussing cutting a reserve gas pipeline that feeds Kaliningrad, and Russia's foreign ministry has warned it would defend the region with all means available.³⁵ Alexander Mercouris sees no room for Moscow to absorb it: "I think this is one area where the Russians absolutely cannot afford to retreat. Kaliningrad is part of their country and Putin is constitutionally obliged to take action."³⁶ On the guarantee the Baltic states would be invoking, he asked: "Would the US risk New York for Tallinn? No chance in a million years."³⁷

John Mearsheimer counted what the Iran war has pulled out of East Asia: the carrier USS George Washington, a Marine expeditionary unit, and Patriot and THAAD batteries.³⁸ "What we're doing is pivoting away from East Asia, which in my opinion is a huge mistake. And it goes to show what a disastrous blunder the decision to enter the Iran war was."³⁹

Sources

1. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · Overnight attack on western Ukraine in two waves, about 100 then about 200 drones by the Ukrainian count, including jet-powered Geran types · watch ▶ 6:23
2. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · CNN reports Ukraine used the last of its PAC-3 interceptors in the big strike on Kiev, about 40 missiles, up to 24 possibly Zircons; Ukraine claimed four intercepted, which he doubts · watch ▶ 28:28
3. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · Zelensky in Brussels seeking another 70 billion euros and warning of 20 million more refugees if Ukraine falls · watch ▶ 0:54
4. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · Belgian PM Bart De Wever says the money for Ukraine has run out; the 90 billion euro EU loan agreed last year is spent or committed · watch ▶ 33:27
5. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · Trump on Newsmax: not a fan of Zelensky, "they destroyed the country," Ukraine should hold elections · watch ▶
6. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · "Russian drones can now operate across the entire territory of Ukraine. No part of Ukraine is out of reach of these drones." · watch ▶ 20:27
7. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · Debris near Kharkov appeared to show a Rassvet satellite receiver; Russia's constellation now about 30 to 31 satellites against 16 earlier · watch ▶ 12:19
8. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · "the days of uncritical belief both within Ukraine and in the West in Ukraine's figures for interceptions of drones and missiles are probably ending" · watch ▶ 25:34
9. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · PAC-3s are not produced in Europe and the US has none to give; Spain and Greece hold older Patriot interceptors but refuse to give them up despite pressure from von der Leyen and Kallas · watch ▶ 40:47
10. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · "It's a question of resources, of available weapon systems, never a question of will." · watch ▶ 42:09
11. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · Zelensky, in a clip, asked the US for anti-ballistic missiles to protect energy facilities for the duration of the diesel deal and said he had not received them; Kallas said no European counterpart will give PAC-3s · watch ▶
12. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · "Russia's offensive missiles are more capable than our defensive technology. That's just a fact." · watch ▶ 2:04
13. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · David Ignatius in the Washington Post describes a joint US-European peace proposal with four pillars: reconstruction via the World Bank and BlackRock, Article 5-like guarantees, an energy deal integrating Russia, Ukraine and Europe, and a ceasefire on the current line · watch ▶
14. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · "You can't defend against a missile with words, dude." · watch ▶ 19:14
15. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · "This is profound arrogance and stupidity on our side because we think we are so brilliant that we're going to come up with something that Europe, Ukraine, and Russia can all agree on." · watch ▶ 23:59
16. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · "As long as BlackRock is at the center of this, this is all about milking that cow indefinitely." · watch ▶ 27:24
17. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · "I don't see a world in which the US is actually backing off of its overall support for Ukraine. If it had more support to give, it would do so." · watch ▶ 13:32
18. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · "Ukraine is not using the Patriot missile system to successfully shoot down Russian ballistic missiles. That just isn't happening." · watch ▶ 14:26
19. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · The timing is about shifting the proxy war onto Europe; the US is overstretched in Iran and Yemen and wants Europe to carry it · watch ▶
20. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · On the EU's 22nd sanctions package: "22 packages of sanctions. You're telling me you're going to do something magical in number 22 that wasn't in the first 21?" · watch ▶ 12:30
21. Alexander Mercouris, The Duran · "Under Trump, Ukraine is effectively receiving the same amount of military aid from the West as it did under Joe Biden." · watch ▶ 15:43
22. Alexander Mercouris, The Duran · "most of these stories about Starlink being cut off or reduced, most of these stories about Intel being cut off are just being put out by Zelensky" · watch ▶ 3:59
23. Alex Christoforou, Garland Nixon · The West is shifting to covert and information war, with the CIA and neocons taking ownership of the Ukraine project from Trump · watch ▶
24. Alex Christoforou, Garland Nixon · "When they're talking about hybrid attacks, to me it's them saying we're going to start a covert dirty war and it's going to happen fairly soon." · watch ▶ 11:26
25. Joe Kent, Judging Freedom · Trump wants out but has not forced the intelligence community, the Pentagon and NATO to comply; until he does, Putin keeps advancing · watch ▶
26. Larry Johnson, Judging Freedom · Briefed a Russia-convened UN Security Council Arria-formula meeting on 14 October; the US representative's tone was conciliatory toward Russia while Denmark, Latvia, Greece and France were scathing · watch ▶
27. Larry Johnson, Judging Freedom · "I believe that Europe and Russia will be in a hot war within a year based upon their attitude and approach." · watch ▶ 5:51
28. Alex Christoforou, Garland Nixon · "I can say as fact that there are very powerful forces in Europe, very high up, that do want a conflict with Russia." · watch ▶ 45:05
29. Scott Ritter, Judging Freedom · Zelensky's public attack on Trump is fatal: "If the United States walks away from Ukraine, it'll just hasten the inevitable collapse of Ukraine." · watch ▶ 2:39
30. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · "What Zelensky wants and what he's made perfectly clear that he wants is that he wants it all." · watch ▶ 54:32
31. Report relayed on air, Danny Haiphong · Trump named Pickaxe Mountain as a possible MOAB target in a Newsmax interview; Israel Hayom reports mobile bomb shelters set up around Tel Aviv · watch ▶ 0:41
32. Scott Ritter, Danny Haiphong · "It's not going to do anything to Pickaxe Mountain, but it doesn't need to. It just has to create the perception of decisive American military intervention." · watch ▶ 3:44
33. Scott Ritter, Danny Haiphong · "I think we may see a carefully choreographed series of events that has the United States dropping these bombs, hitting some other targets, has Iran retaliating with ballistic missiles, and then both sides stopping." · watch ▶ 19:35
34. Anthony Aguilar, Glenn Diesen · "What we're hearing from the president of the United States is window dressing to show a position of strength before the US midterm elections." · watch ▶ 7:08
35. Alexander Mercouris, The Duran · Lithuania is talking of cutting a reserve gas pipeline that feeds Kaliningrad; Russia's foreign ministry warned it would defend the region with all means · watch ▶
36. Alexander Mercouris, The Duran · "I think this is one area where the Russians absolutely cannot afford to retreat. Kaliningrad is part of their country and Putin is constitutionally obliged to take action." · watch ▶ 5:29
37. Alexander Mercouris, The Duran · "Would the US risk New York for Tallinn? No chance in a million years." · watch ▶ 11:49
38. John Mearsheimer, John Mearsheimer · The Iran war pulled the USS George Washington, a Marine expeditionary unit, and Patriot and THAAD batteries out of East Asia · watch ▶ 0:22
39. John Mearsheimer, John Mearsheimer · "what we're doing is pivoting away from East Asia, which in my opinion is a huge mistake. And it goes to show what a disastrous blunder the decision to enter the Iran war was." · watch ▶ 0:41

By Ruins Report, a daily synthesis of what our tracked analysts said, not original reporting. Every numbered claim is sourced, dated, and timestamped above.