Six Months In, Washington Has Not Broken Iran

This week the director of the CIA flew to Moscow, stayed a few hours, and offered almost no public account of why. The trip landed at a symbolic moment: roughly six months into the American war on Iran. Among the analysts we track, the readings of both the anniversary and the errand converged on one theme. The campaign to force Iran to bend has not worked, and Washington now appears to be feeling for an exit it cannot admit to wanting.

The six-month assessment was close to unanimous among the voices that spoke. Aaron David Miller, a veteran of decades of American Middle East diplomacy, told Daniel Davis that if the war ended today it would be "nothing short of an epic disaster" for Washington: Iran had survived with much of its military capacity, its ballistic missiles and drones, intact, and none of the administration's stated objectives had been met.¹ Chas Freeman, the former ambassador, put the strategic position more bluntly, and forty-seven years of sanctions, he noted, had never broken Iranian will.²

“He's stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran enjoying escalation dominance.”

The same verdict arrived from voices who agree on little else.

Where the analysts we track land at the six-month mark

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Aaron David Miller, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive

If the war ended today it would be an epic disaster; Iran survived with its missiles and drones intact.

Trita Parsi, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive

The US and Israel threw everything at Iran and failed; Tehran is more confident than before.

MM

Mohammad Marandi, Judging Freedom

Iran is rearming and expanding underground bases, not collapsing; the pressure campaign is failing.

Larry Johnson, Judging Freedom

Iran's economy in purchasing-power terms is nearly double its 2015 size despite eleven years of sanctions.

Karen Kwiatkowski, Judging Freedom

The IRGC has run the Strait of Hormuz professionally since March; the tough talk is theater for the home audience.

Two of those points deserve their own line. Larry Johnson argued that Iran's economy, measured in purchasing-power terms, is almost twice the size it was in 2015, and that the much-advertised naval blockade of Hormuz is largely fictional.³ Mohammad Marandi, speaking on Judging Freedom, added the legal wall on Beijing's side: it is a violation of Chinese law for a Chinese bank to comply voluntarily with an American sanction, which is why the pressure on China to isolate Iran keeps failing.⁴

It is worth being honest about the shape of the sample. Most of the voices that published over the past day sit on the restraint-minded, multipolar wing of the field, and they were reading a campaign against Iran as failing, which is a conclusion that wing reaches easily. One tracked voice cut the other way. The Telegraph's *Ukraine: The Latest*, no dove on Iran, argued that the economic blockade has done more to hurt Tehran than six months of bombing ever did, pointing to Iranians now queuing for fuel.⁵

The Moscow errand

The CIA director's trip gave the day its news peg, and the tracked voices read it through the same lens of American weakness. Larry Johnson, on Judging Freedom, doubted it was diplomacy at all, suggesting the four-hour visit, made in an aircraft fitted with a refrigeration unit, was more likely an effort to recover the bodies of American personnel killed operating on Ukraine's side.⁶ Peter Erickson, on Conversations Among the Ruins, read the errand as being about Iran rather than Ukraine: the administration needs Russian cooperation for its sanctions campaign to work, and without it the effort largely collapses. He cited tanker data showing Hormuz oil flow at roughly 3.7 million barrels a day, against some 20 million before the war began.⁷ Lawrence Wilkerson was blunter still: that the party who needs something is the one who travels, and a CIA director flying to Moscow is itself a sign of American weakness.⁸

The other front

The war in Ukraine produced the day's sharpest disagreement over facts on the ground. Alexander Mercouris described the situation around Dobropillia as moving from disastrous to, very soon, catastrophic, with Ukrainian forces at risk of encirclement in a cauldron near Slaviansk and Kramatorsk.⁹ From the other direction, RFU News reported a Ukrainian counterattack near Lyman that has cut off a Russian salient and, in its telling, is about to turn catastrophic for the attacking force.¹⁰ Both cannot be right, and both are dated and on the record.

Above the tactical picture, John Mearsheimer, speaking with Glenn Diesen, offered the longer read: Russia is doing very well on the battlefield and has effectively turned Ukraine into a landlocked country, with the economic consequences that follow from it.¹¹ On Conversations Among the Ruins, the argument was that the war will be decided by economic attrition, the Black Sea blockade and the energy and budget strain, rather than by lines on a map.

The bill at home

Several voices pointed to a cost landing on the United States itself. Freeman warned that American oil storage is exhausted and that a supply crunch is coming, first in diesel and then in jet fuel, with a real inflationary bite. Johnson, on a separate program, said an industry contact had flagged the American diesel system entering its highest-risk supply window of the year, over the next thirty to sixty days.¹² Wilkerson tied the longer trend to the financial system, pointing to the BRICS summit in India in September as the next marker of countries lining up behind Chinese and Russian alternatives to the dollar and the SWIFT network.¹³ On Conversations Among the Ruins, Peter Erickson placed all of it against a national debt that has now crossed forty trillion dollars and keeps climbing.

Worth watching

Several of the day's calls carry a clear horizon. Wilkerson expects no major military move against Iran until after the November midterms, and a return to confrontation, with nuclear options back in Pentagon discussion, afterward. Johnson's diesel warning is specific to the next thirty to sixty days. Wilkerson's dollar call points to the September BRICS summit. And Mercouris has staked out the nearest-term claim of all, that Dobropillia falls very soon. Each is logged with its date and source, and we will note how they age.

Sources

1. Aaron David Miller, *Daniel Davis / Deep Dive*: Iran survived "with much of their military capacity, ballistic missiles and drones intact"; ending the war now would be "an epic disaster." watch ▶ 6:14
2. Chas Freeman, *Dialogue Works*: forty-seven years of sanctions never broke Iranian will; the US is stuck in Hormuz. watch ▶ 3:34
3. Larry Johnson, *Judging Freedom*: Iran's economy in purchasing-power terms nearly double its 2015 size; the Hormuz blockade is fictional. watch ▶ 26:31
4. Mohammad Marandi, *Judging Freedom*: a Chinese bank complying voluntarily with a US sanction violates Chinese law. watch ▶ 22:52
5. Ukraine: The Latest, *The Telegraph*: the blockade has done more to hurt Iran than the bombing campaign ever did. watch ▶ 1:11
6. Larry Johnson, *Judging Freedom*: the CIA director's Moscow trip, in an aircraft with a refrigeration unit, was likely to recover American bodies, not diplomacy. watch ▶ 4:23
7. Peter Erickson, *Conversations Among the Ruins*: the trip was really about Iran; Hormuz flow at roughly 3.7 million barrels a day versus 20 million before the war. watch ▶ 54:54
8. Lawrence Wilkerson, *Dialogue Works*: a CIA director flying to Moscow is a sign of American weakness. watch ▶ 8:29
9. Alexander Mercouris, *Alexander Mercouris*: the situation at Dobropillia is likely "very soon to become catastrophic." watch ▶ 5:32
10. RFU News, *Strategic Geopolitics*: a Ukrainian pincer near Lyman has cut off the Russian salient, which is "about to turn catastrophic." watch ▶ 3:32
11. John Mearsheimer, *Glenn Diesen*: Russia has effectively "turned Ukraine into a landlocked country." watch ▶ 69:48
12. Larry Johnson, *Dialogue Works*: the US diesel system is entering its "highest risk 30 to 60 day" supply window of 2026. watch ▶ 34:28
13. Lawrence Wilkerson, *Dialogue Works*: watch the September BRICS summit in India as more of the world lines up against the dollar and SWIFT. watch ▶ 44:24

By Ruins Report, a daily synthesis of what our tracked analysts said, not original reporting. Every numbered claim is sourced, dated, and timestamped above.