Trita Parsi

Tactical Iranian setbacks, including the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, do not add up to a US strategic win: Washington lost control of this war on day one and never regained real escalation dominance. The Houthi seizure of Perim Island and Yemen's Red Sea coast is now the bigger development, since it threatens to reopen a second chokepoint at Bab el-Mandeb even as Hormuz stays contested. Capitulation remains existential for Tehran in a way war is not, so with nothing on offer short of regime change, a more unrestrained third round is likely, with roughly an 80 percent chance within six to seven weeks.

Russia's invasion snapped former restraint sympathisers back into Cold War hawkishness, a familiar posture rather than a sound reassessment.

Iran's campaign against US bases in Jordan also degrades Israel's missile shield, since those bases were central to intercepting missiles headed for Israel. Israel cannot be deterred and is likely to push for a much more unrestrained war in a probable third round, treating it as a last chance to act before collapsing American public support forces future constraint. Israel's standing in US public opinion has cratered across every demographic, adding urgency to that calculus.

China's oil demand is a decisive swing factor in prices and it holds unique leverage over both Tehran and Washington, making it the only plausible party able to broker and sustain any eventual deal.

Gulf states' trust in US protection has collapsed; American bases proved useless as deterrents and became magnets for attack, leaving a vacuum the Gulf states are trying to fill themselves. The United States lost control of this war on day one and never regained real escalation dominance, and its Gulf logistical infrastructure has been badly degraded. Saudi Arabia is now boxed into an impossible choice between escalating against the Houthis or lifting its own blockade, underscoring how far US leverage in the region has slipped.

Sanctions and the blockade are causing real pain, but as long as Iran's population blames the American side for the war, the government can manage the strain rather than being forced into capitulation. Simultaneous risk to the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait now puts roughly a third of global oil flow in jeopardy, with Brent near $110, undercutting claims that markets were stabilizing.