Pakistan Confirms Its Troops Are Inside Saudi Arabia

Pakistani forces are already deployed in Saudi Arabia. The army's spokesman, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif, told CNN as much, citing the Mecca defence alliance, and Nima Alkhorshid, relaying the interview on Wednesday 7 October's Dialogue Works, added the movements that go with it: at least four Pakistani military aircraft sent to Aden and Turkish forces arriving in Riyadh.¹ The welcome came by missile. Ansar Allah struck Aden airport after a Pakistani flight landed there, and Yemeni reports, which Sarah Bills relayed on Daniel Davis's Deep Dive without vouching for them, say Pakistani troops were killed at the Badr camp near the city.² In Riyadh, the attacks on the airport on Tuesday 6 October are rumoured, in Laith Marouf's telling on Rachel Blevins's show, to have hit Turkish air defence systems and positions set up in the previous 48 hours; he offered it as a rumour and it should be read as one.³ With Sanaa's declared air blockade of Saudi Arabia still in force, the airports receiving the kingdom's new partners have joined the list of targets.

The war they have joined is going badly for the side they joined. By Ansar Allah's count, carried by Alkhorshid, Saudi forces flew about 156 air and missile strikes in 24 hours on Taiz, Saada, Al-Jawf and Marib; the Saudi-backed offensive in Al-Jawf failed, and Ansar Allah advanced on Taiz over 72 hours and is now strangling the city.⁴ Larry Johnson, on Danny Haiphong's show, measured the other direction of the war on the kingdom's East-West pipeline to Yanbu, which runs through 13 pumping stations: "Four of the 13 are dead. Kaput destroyed. That means nothing's going through."⁵ He listed Jeddah, Aramco facilities and Aden airport as Houthi targets in the last 24 to 40 hours and said the Saudi-backed push toward Dhubab and Mocha had been reversed,⁶ and he set the balance of forces at about 350,000 Houthi fighters against a Saudi-led force of roughly 75,000.⁷ Marouf said Yemeni forces have encircled Taiz, offered an amnesty, and watched thousands of Saudi-allied militiamen drop their weapons and leave toward Aden; he described the city as close to falling.⁸

So what do Islamabad and Ankara bring that could change this? Less than the arrivals suggest, on the evidence available. Bills cited Reuters on Pakistani help with equipment, intelligence, drone operators and air defence, with Turkey more standoffish: "I don't foresee Turkey putting boots on the ground inside of Yemen anytime soon out of the two. First would definitely be Pakistan."⁹ Davis, her host, put a ceiling on even that: "you could use the whole Pakistani army and all you would do is lose probably a quarter of it. And still probably not succeed."¹⁰ Advisers, drone crews and air defence batteries, in other words, are what the kingdom is getting; an army that could retake ground is what it would need, and no one on Wednesday's shows thought one was on offer. Anthony Aguilar, on Dialogue Works, argued from the same premise toward the opposite conclusion, that advisers and air defence batteries are not a commitment and that the partners will be drawn past them: "You have to get boots on the ground. You have to have skin in the game."¹¹ The United States, after Washington's refusal of air support, now reportedly limits itself to intelligence, targeting and refuelling tankers,⁴ and is in no condition to supply what the coalition lacks; a US report out this week, by Aguilar's account, counts 81 American aircraft lost since the war with Iran began, among them an F-35, F-16s, F-15s, tankers, helicopters and drones, about $3.3 billion of airframes.¹²

Aguilar drew the conclusion the day's evidence points to. "This is now a regional conflict that is quickly growing into a continental conflict."¹³ The mechanism is not complicated: "Saudi Arabia is losing on the ground in Yemen and therefore everyone that's supporting Saudi Arabia is losing."¹⁴ He expects the circle to widen rather than close in the coming weeks: "I do think that the United States will become more involved. I think that Pakistan will become more involved. I think that Turkey will become more involved."¹⁵

“Saudi Arabia is losing on the ground in Yemen and therefore everyone that's supporting Saudi Arabia is losing.”

What that does to the newcomers is the deeper question, and Marouf gave it two answers. The first is strategic: "Now that Turkey and Pakistan are moving their troops there, this is going to make it impossible to invade Iran."¹⁶ That is his reading, and it has a plain logic: armies committed to Saudi airfields and Yemeni mountains are not available for anything else, and two of the region's largest are now spoken for. The second is domestic, and it runs on a timer that starts with the first casualty list. Pakistan has seen huge marches over the past three or four days demanding Imran Khan's release, and Marouf expects that once names of Pakistani soldiers or officers killed in Yemen are heard it is "going to trigger movement in Pakistan to change the regime";¹⁷ of Ankara he said that "the minute there will be names of Turkish soldiers killed things are going to change."¹⁸ Riyadh itself is showing the strain. Bills noted an unusual Saudi call for mass recruitment to the royal guard, the first in about half a decade,¹⁹ and reached for a phrase more often attached to Afghanistan: "Yemen itself is known as the graveyard of empires."²⁰

Can the newcomers save Riyadh's war?

Matthew Hoh, Dialogue Works

"We're running out of weapons fighting Iran. We don't have anything left to fight Yemen with."²¹

Douglas Macgregor, Rachel Blevins

"I think Saudi Arabia is finished. I don't think it's going to bounce back from its current situation."²²

Strike options before 3 November, and Putin's red lines at Valdai

The White House has asked the Pentagon to prepare options for renewed strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms, according to a report in The Atlantic that Nima Alkhorshid read on Dialogue Works; CENTCOM is developing targets, and officials acknowledge that limited strikes are unlikely to reopen Hormuz or lower fuel prices before election day.²³ Larry Johnson, on the same show, put the economic point without hedging: "if the United States launches new attacks on Iran, it's going to do anything but lower the price of oil."²⁴ Matt Bracken, on Mario Nawfal's show, doubted the premise: "I personally don't think that Trump is going to order anything before the midterm,"²⁵ and said the thing to watch is an Iranian preemptive strike before the election rather than an American one.²⁶

Asked at Valdai whether Russia would hit factories in NATO countries that support Ukraine's long-range strikes, Vladimir Putin said Russia is watching and will reach its own conclusions. Gilbert Doctorow, on Judging Freedom, heard a retreat: "with that statement he undid all of Russia's red lines."²⁷ His reading of how Moscow answers instead is a pattern rather than a threat: "Every time that there's an escalation in the war or some vicious attack on Russia, Russia bashes Ukraine."²⁸ He pointed to public listings showing a surge of Kiev apartments offered for rent by people leaving the city, and expects "an unsurvivable winter" there.²⁹

Sources

1. Nima Alkhorshid, Dialogue Works · Pakistani army spokesman Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif told CNN that Pakistani forces are already deployed in Saudi Arabia under the Mecca defence alliance; at least four Pakistani military aircraft sent to Aden and Turkish forces arriving in Riyadh · watch ▶ 0:36
2. Sarah Bills, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · Ansar Allah struck Aden airport after a Pakistani flight landed; Yemeni reports, which she relayed unconfirmed, say Pakistani troops were killed at the Badr camp near Aden · watch ▶ 24:47
3. Laith Marouf, Rachel Blevins · The 6 October attacks on Riyadh airport are rumoured to have hit Turkish air defence systems and positions set up in the previous 48 hours · watch ▶ 4:24
4. Nima Alkhorshid, Dialogue Works · Ansar Allah counts about 156 Saudi air and missile strikes in 24 hours on Taiz, Saada, Al-Jawf and Marib; the Al-Jawf offensive failed and Ansar Allah is strangling Taiz; Trump reportedly limits US help to intelligence, targeting and refuelling tankers · watch ▶
5. Larry Johnson, Danny Haiphong · "Four of the 13 are dead. Kaput destroyed. That means nothing's going through." · watch ▶ 26:21
6. Larry Johnson, Danny Haiphong · The Houthis hit Jeddah, Aramco facilities and Aden airport in the last 24 to 40 hours; the Saudi-backed offensive toward Dhubab and Mocha was reversed · watch ▶
7. Larry Johnson, Danny Haiphong · About 350,000 Houthi fighters against a Saudi-led force of about 75,000 · watch ▶
8. Laith Marouf, Rachel Blevins · Yemeni forces have encircled Taiz and offered amnesty; thousands of Saudi-allied militiamen dropped their weapons and left toward Aden; the city is close to falling · watch ▶ 17:11
9. Sarah Bills, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · Reuters reports Pakistani equipment, intelligence, drone operators and air defence; "I don't foresee Turkey putting boots on the ground inside of Yemen anytime soon out of the two. First would definitely be Pakistan." · watch ▶ 27:12
10. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · "you could use the whole Pakistani army and all you would do is lose probably a quarter of it. And still probably not succeed." · watch ▶ 27:36
11. Anthony Aguilar, Dialogue Works · "You have to get boots on the ground. You have to have skin in the game." · watch ▶ 3:19
12. Anthony Aguilar, Dialogue Works · A US report out this week counts 81 US aircraft lost since the war began, including an F-35, F-16s, F-15s, tankers, helicopters and drones, about $3.3 billion · watch ▶ 8:19
13. Anthony Aguilar, Dialogue Works · "This is now a regional conflict that is quickly growing into a continental conflict." · watch ▶ 9:58
14. Anthony Aguilar, Dialogue Works · "Saudi Arabia is losing on the ground in Yemen and therefore everyone that's supporting Saudi Arabia is losing." · watch ▶ 33:30
15. Anthony Aguilar, Dialogue Works · "I do think that the United States will become more involved. I think that Pakistan will become more involved. I think that Turkey will become more involved." · watch ▶ 31:05
16. Laith Marouf, Rachel Blevins · "Now that Turkey and Pakistan are moving their troops there, this is going to make it impossible to invade Iran." · watch ▶ 7:21
17. Laith Marouf, Rachel Blevins · Names of Pakistani soldiers or officers killed in Yemen are "going to trigger movement in Pakistan to change the regime"; huge marches over the past three or four days demanding Imran Khan's release · watch ▶ 8:36
18. Laith Marouf, Rachel Blevins · "the minute there will be names of Turkish soldiers killed things are going to change" · watch ▶ 9:17
19. Sarah Bills, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · Saudi Arabia has issued an unusual call for mass recruitment to the royal guard, the first in about half a decade · watch ▶ 17:43
20. Sarah Bills, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · "Yemen itself is known as the graveyard of empires." · watch ▶ 7:47
21. Matthew Hoh, Dialogue Works · "We're running out of weapons fighting Iran. We don't have anything left to fight Yemen with." Expects Pakistan and Turkey to contribute air defence and intelligence only · watch ▶ 12:47
22. Douglas Macgregor, Rachel Blevins · "I think Saudi Arabia is finished. I don't think it's going to bounce back from its current situation." Turkey and Pakistan unlikely to rescue it; MBS is trying to borrow to keep the kingdom afloat · watch ▶ 37:10
23. Nima Alkhorshid, Dialogue Works · Citing The Atlantic: the White House has asked the Pentagon for options for renewed strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms; CENTCOM is developing targets; officials acknowledge limited strikes are unlikely to reopen Hormuz or lower fuel prices before election day · watch ▶
24. Larry Johnson, Dialogue Works · "if the United States launches new attacks on Iran, it's going to do anything but lower the price of oil." · watch ▶ 2:27
25. Matt Bracken, Mario Nawfal · "I personally don't think that Trump is going to order anything before the midterm" · watch ▶ 13:38
26. Matt Bracken, Mario Nawfal · Iranian preemptive strikes before the election are the thing to watch · watch ▶ 18:11
27. Gilbert Doctorow, Judging Freedom · Putin, asked whether Russia would hit factories in NATO countries supporting Ukraine's long-range strikes, said Russia is watching and will reach its own conclusions; "with that statement he undid all of Russia's red lines" · watch ▶ 9:06
28. Gilbert Doctorow, Judging Freedom · "Every time that there's an escalation in the war or some vicious attack on Russia, Russia bashes Ukraine." · watch ▶ 17:38
29. Gilbert Doctorow, Judging Freedom · Public listings show a surge in Kiev apartments offered for rent by people leaving; he expects "an unsurvivable winter" · watch ▶ 23:23

By Ruins Report, a daily synthesis of what our tracked analysts said, not original reporting. Every numbered claim is sourced, dated, and timestamped above.