A Three-Day Bombing Plan Waits on the Midterms

The Pentagon has developed plans for a possible three-day campaign of intensive strikes against Iran, aimed at its rebuilt missile and drone arsenal, its energy infrastructure and IRGC command centers, the New York Times reported on Thursday 8 October, as Nima Alkhorshid read it on Dialogue Works,¹ and by evening the president had put a date on when it would not be used. Word that the White House had asked for strike options before the midterms leaked, and oil futures and Treasury yields rose on it, Larry Johnson said on Garland Nixon's show;² Daniel Davis, on his Deep Dive, put the overnight jump in oil at 4 percent,³ and Danny Haiphong had the price at 105 dollars when Trump posted that there would be no attack on Iran before the 3 November election.⁴ The post, read on air on Deep Dive, called the talks with Iran productive, said the blockade stays, and claimed 22 million barrels had flowed in a night.⁵ Haiphong added a report from Israel's Channels 12 and 14 that the IDF chief, Eyal Zamir, has said Washington issued directives to prepare large-scale operations against Iran.⁶ A plan exists, an ally has been told to get ready, and the date has been pushed past an election. That sequence leaves one question, and it is not about timing. Does the United States have a military answer to an Iran that now decides what leaves the Gulf?

Begin with what Iran did this week. Davis opened the show with the count: Iran hit 12 tankers in a single week, the most of the war, while Trump says the United States is in full control of Hormuz.⁷ Matthew Hoh, his guest, set the numbers under it, oil at 104 dollars⁸ and Kpler reporting traffic through the Strait down almost 30 percent in the last week.⁹ Mohammad Marandi, on Judging Freedom, said Iran struck a tanker off Doha on Wednesday 7 October¹⁰ and that nine or ten days of Iranian hits have cut the oil flow through Hormuz to about 8 million barrels a day.¹¹ Gas has fared worse: "it used to be 10 LNG ships would go out a day and now it's one."¹² Crude, Hoh said, is the only cargo still moving at all; "literally every other commodity ... that comes out of the Gulf ... are not getting out," gas, refined products, fertilizer and aluminum among them.¹³

What has replaced free passage is a fee. Iran is hitting the ships that sail without approval or payment, Johnson said: "unless it's paid the fee, it ain't getting out."¹⁴ Marandi gave the price. Brent is near 103 dollars with physical barrels 20 to 30 dollars higher,¹⁵ and "each barrel that gets out without Iranian consent costs about $20."¹⁶ Richard Wolff, on Dialogue Works, added the insurers, who "are going to be charging huge rates for any tanker to go through there."¹⁷ The bill is arriving onshore. Grocery prices in Johnson's Florida county are up 33 percent since the war began on 1 March,¹⁸ and he called the loss of Gulf crude "the same as an amputation,"¹⁹ "a structural problem. It's built into the system."²⁰ Hoh's summary of the position was the day's shortest: "if this is what winning looks like, I'd hate to see what losing looks like."²¹

Set the three-day plan against that. The first question is not whether it has been written but whether it can be carried out, and here the analysts converged.

KJ Noh, on Haiphong's show, doubted the premise outright: "I don't believe that the intent to attack is serious because frankly you would need at least a year of buildup."²² Haiphong cited a Congressional Research Service count of 81 American planes, drones and helicopters lost in the war so far.²³ Marandi relayed a US four-star general's reported estimate that taking the Strait would need 150,000 troops and months,²⁴ and explained why even that would not settle it: "Iran doesn't even have to use the Strait of Hormuz. They can strike these ships anywhere in the Persian Gulf that they want."²⁵ Hoh, asked about a renewed war, went furthest: "I think we can have an operational defeat of the US military in a renewed war with Iran."²⁶

The shared read is this: Washington has a plan it cannot execute, and the plan's purpose is to be reported. Wolff said it most plainly. "This is all theater."²⁷ "If they could solve their problem militarily, they would have done it."²⁸ "They don't have a military solution. They only have the threat of one."²⁹ Noh arrived at the same place from the Strait: "The US has already lost that competition. It's not going to go back in there, try the same thing and win."³⁰

Why keep drafting plans, then? The midterm calendar is the obvious answer, and the analysts offered a deeper one. Hoh located it in credibility, the asset the threat is meant to protect and no longer can: "I don't think anyone in the world outside of the West, outside of those who are essentially depending upon the United States for their power, I don't think anyone believes in the idea of American credibility."³¹ On that reading, a threat no one believes still has to be made, because withdrawing it concedes the point, and Davis's account of Trump's position explains why he will not withdraw it: there is no good exit, walking away hands Iran the win, and renewed strikes would be catastrophic for the world economy.³² Marandi, speaking for the other side of the table, said "the real debate that's going on in Iran is not about capitulation or appeasing Trump."³³ That leaves the talks, which Johnson says are again brokered by Qatar and Pakistan, with Israel nervous about a nuclear deal,³⁴ as the only moving part, and Wolff would not rule out the alternative: desperation could still push Trump into a stupid adventure.³⁵

Does Washington have a military answer?

Douglas Macgregor, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive

"We cannot easily militarily defeat the Iranian defenses"; in a new round US forces would exhaust most precision-guided munitions within 3 to 7 days.

Pepe Escobar, Judging Freedom

"This is a do or die war for Iran"; the Hormuz toll is to be paid in rials.

Brandon Weichert, Mario Nawfal

"the United States military is poised, I think, to lose a major war in Iran"

Thirty-two flags in Kiev and bridges left to foot traffic

An unannounced NATO military delegation, with representatives of all 32 members, has arrived in Kiev, by Alexander Mercouris's account the largest Western military delegation in eight years.³⁶ What it can bring is limited by stocks rather than by will: "The generals cannot conjure air defense missiles out of the air."³⁷ On the Dnieper crossings, the bridges that stay shut, his source says Russia could drop every one of them but prefers to damage them to pedestrian-only use, which creates bottlenecks without the finality of a collapse.³⁸

Sources

1. Nima Alkhorshid, Dialogue Works · reading the New York Times: "the Pentagon has developed plans for a possible three-day campaign of intensive strikes against Iran, targeting its rebuilt missile and drone arsenal, energy infrastructure, and IRGC command centers" · watch ▶ 41:37
2. Larry Johnson, Garland Nixon · word leaked that the Pentagon was asked for strike options before the midterms; oil futures and Treasury yields rose · watch ▶ 1:37
3. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · oil jumped 4 percent overnight on reports of Pentagon strike options · watch ▶ 6:08
4. Danny Haiphong, Danny Haiphong · Trump said no attack on Iran before the 3 November midterms after oil hit 105 dollars · watch ▶ 0:39
5. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · Trump's Truth Social post read on air: productive talks with Iran, the blockade stays, 22 million barrels flowed in a night, no attack before the midterms · watch ▶ 5:42
6. Danny Haiphong, Danny Haiphong · Israeli Channels 12 and 14 report IDF chief Eyal Zamir saying Washington issued directives to prepare large-scale operations against Iran · watch ▶ 1:13
7. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · Iran hit 12 tankers in a single week, the most of the war, while Trump says the US is in full control of Hormuz · watch ▶ 0:04
8. Matthew Hoh, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · oil at 104 dollars · watch ▶ 1:17
9. Matthew Hoh, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · Kpler reports Hormuz traffic down almost 30 percent in the last week · watch ▶ 1:27
10. Mohammad Marandi, Judging Freedom · Iran struck a tanker off Doha, Qatar on Wednesday 7 October · watch ▶ 29:15
11. Mohammad Marandi, Judging Freedom · Iranian hits over 9 to 10 days have cut Hormuz oil flow to about 8 million barrels a day · watch ▶ 28:24
12. Mohammad Marandi, Judging Freedom · "it used to be 10 LNG ships would go out a day and now it's one." · watch ▶ 29:21
13. Matthew Hoh, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · only crude gets out; "literally every other commodity ... that comes out of the Gulf ... are not getting out" · watch ▶ 3:35
14. Larry Johnson, Garland Nixon · Iran is hitting tankers that sail without approval or the paid fee: "unless it's paid the fee, it ain't getting out" · watch ▶ 4:29
15. Mohammad Marandi, Judging Freedom · Brent about 103 dollars, physical barrels 20 to 30 dollars higher · watch ▶ 29:44
16. Mohammad Marandi, Judging Freedom · "each barrel that gets out without Iranian consent costs about $20" · watch ▶ 30:47
17. Richard Wolff, Dialogue Works · insurers "are going to be charging huge rates for any tanker to go through there." · watch ▶ 9:34
18. Larry Johnson, Garland Nixon · grocery prices in his Florida county "up 33%" since the war began on 1 March · watch ▶ 14:23
19. Larry Johnson, Garland Nixon · "crude coming out of the Persian Gulf is the same as an amputation" · watch ▶ 19:48
20. Larry Johnson, Garland Nixon · "a structural problem. It's built into the system" · watch ▶ 18:47
21. Matthew Hoh, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · "if this is what winning looks like, I'd hate to see what losing looks like." · watch ▶ 0:25
22. KJ Noh, Danny Haiphong · "I don't believe that the intent to attack is serious because frankly you would need at least a year of buildup" · watch ▶ 1:59
23. Danny Haiphong, Danny Haiphong · a Congressional Research Service report counts 81 US planes, drones and helicopters lost in the Iran war · watch ▶ 15:30
24. Mohammad Marandi, Judging Freedom · a US four-star general reportedly said taking the Strait would need 150,000 troops and months · watch ▶ 32:02
25. Mohammad Marandi, Judging Freedom · "Iran doesn't even have to use the Strait of Hormuz. They can strike these ships anywhere in the Persian Gulf that they want." · watch ▶ 31:44
26. Matthew Hoh, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · "I think we can have an operational defeat of the US military in a renewed war with Iran." · watch ▶ 27:47
27. Richard Wolff, Dialogue Works · "This is all theater." · watch ▶ 28:03
28. Richard Wolff, Dialogue Works · "If they could solve their problem militarily, they would have done it." · watch ▶ 28:07
29. Richard Wolff, Dialogue Works · "They don't have a military solution. They only have the threat of one." · watch ▶ 28:25
30. KJ Noh, Danny Haiphong · "The US has already lost that competition. It's not going to go back in there, try the same thing and win" · watch ▶ 14:23
31. Matthew Hoh, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · "I don't think anyone in the world outside of the West, outside of those who are essentially depending upon the United States for their power, I don't think anyone believes in the idea of American credibility." · watch ▶ 10:52
32. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · Trump has no good exit: walking away hands Iran the win, renewed strikes would be catastrophic for the world economy · watch ▶
33. Mohammad Marandi, Judging Freedom · "the real debate that's going on in Iran is not about capitulation or appeasing Trump" · watch ▶ 23:12
34. Larry Johnson, Garland Nixon · talks again brokered by Qatar and/or Pakistan, Israel nervous about a nuclear deal · watch ▶ 2:26
35. Richard Wolff, Dialogue Works · desperation could still push Trump into a stupid adventure · watch ▶
36. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · an unannounced NATO military delegation with representatives of all 32 members arrived in Kiev, the largest Western military delegation in eight years · watch ▶
37. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · "The generals cannot conjure air defense missiles out of the air." · watch ▶ 22:53
38. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · his source says Russia can drop every Dnieper bridge but prefers to damage them to pedestrian-only use, creating bottlenecks · watch ▶ 38:09

By Ruins Report, a daily synthesis of what our tracked analysts said, not original reporting. Every numbered claim is sourced, dated, and timestamped above.