Nima Alkhorshid

Says Iran-aligned Yemeni forces are beating the Saudi-backed side outright and that Saudi airpower without ground forces cannot reverse it: "Saudi Arabia is losing and has lost in my opinion. There is no way for Saudi Arabia to get back in Yemen." Reads the new Iran-Oman mechanism as having set the terms of passage through Hormuz through Iranian and Omani waters, shutting down the US-backed southern route, and says the United States was defeated militarily and knows it. Now says Ansar Allah has seized Yemen's western coast and the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoints, that Saudi exports from the peninsula have effectively been reduced to zero, and that the pipeline could be struck again even if repaired. Now frames the Ansarallah F-15 shootdown over Marib and the halt of Saudi Red Sea oil exports as a major blow forcing Saudi Arabia toward negotiation, and reads the Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey Mecca Defense Alliance as a de-escalatory rather than escalatory move.

Russia is fighting a genuine and sustainable war of attrition and has already won the war against Ukraine, Europe and NATO; the east is permanently lost and Moscow is dictating terms rather than compromising. Reads Zelensky as irrelevant to Moscow, which in his view will negotiate only with Europe, the UK and Washington directly, and treats Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities and Crimea as sabotage rather than a war-winning strategy. Now says the flood of Western weapons, systems and mercenaries into Ukraine arrived without any integrated strategy and produced only chaos and devastation, proof that expensive weapons alone do not win a war without the capability and ground forces to use them.

Reads Houthi control of the Bab el-Mandeb as a potential total strategic failure for Israel, given its dependence on that route through Suez, and argues Israel has benefited from and actively fostered division among the Gulf states, Iraq and Yemen, so that a genuine Yemen-Saudi settlement would be a nightmare for it. Now argues Israel benefits from the chaos and division between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, which he reads as part of why Trump is not pressing Riyadh to resolve it, a reading Larry Johnson disputed on air. Now reports that Saudi Arabia has informed several European nations their oil shipments will be cancelled and delayed until at least November, tying the halt to Houthi/Yemen action framed by his guests as solidarity with Gaza. Now says that with the Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz-type chokepoints under axis-of-resistance influence and the Suez Canal within missile and drone range, the axis is gaining leverage over Israel’s regional agenda, while Israel feels immune to the region’s suffering because of guaranteed US support.

Argues Washington will never let China or Russia help resolve West Asia or Ukraine, because doing so would visibly expose the decline of American dominance. Says the United States exhausted its long-range missile stockpiles fighting Iran and shifted to mid- and short-range missiles launched from Kuwait and Bahrain. His summary judgment: "the whole Middle East or the west Asia has collapsed overnight in my opinion by the war against Iran." Now notes that US and British advisers embedded with Saudi and Emirati forces, on a defence budget nine times Iran's, have still failed to beat Ansar Allah, and says the Ukraine war has seriously damaged European foreign policy standing. Now says the war exposes clear limits of American power, with the US, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt and the Pakistan-Turkey "Mecca pact" all failing to defeat Ansarallah or deter Iran's allies. Now says the war framed as Iranian regime change has instead exposed instability inside the GCC states, turning the pressure back on the US-aligned order, and describes the Gulf states as self-destructing over a war they never chose.

Saudi oil exports have "collapsed totally as we talk" after strikes on the multi-point East-West pipeline and the Jizan facilities, with no repair timeline he can find. Reads the BRICS declaration against unilateral and secondary sanctions alongside the bloc's alternative payment rails, Brazil's Pix and the Iranian and Russian equivalents, as the beginnings of an interconnected network that bypasses the dollar. Now relays an Associated Press estimate of three to five weeks to repair the East-West pipeline damage in Saudi Arabia. Now cites a maritime tracking company's data (Vortexa) that Saudi Arabia has not exported any oil via Red Sea ports since Saturday, with shipments to several European nations cancelled and delayed until at least November, and relays an estimate that part of the pipeline or destroyed facilities may be fixed by the end of September.