Gilbert Doctorow

Downplays imminent Russian/Chinese military intervention for Iran (Tehran has managed alone on missiles and drones); says Moscow and Beijing stay quiet to protect their own leverage with Trump, and calls a US nuclear strike on Iran possible but unlikely.

Russia has shifted from attrition to deliberately knocking out Kiev’s power, heat and water to force civilians to flee into Europe and turn a refugee wave into political pressure on NATO governments, rather than attacking NATO directly; argues Russia’s real aim is expelling NATO and locking in Ukrainian neutrality, not seizing territory, and that "Europe has had its fill of Ukrainians." Now says Russia’s strangulation strategy, cutting the flow of Western drones and munitions by sea and land, is working faster than expected, and reads the combined effect with strikes on Kiev’s heating and warehousing as leaving Ukraine unable to sustain the war much longer: "I think the war will come to an early end."

Argues the real obstacle to ending the Ukraine war is not Trump but the CIA and the wider deep state, which will not let him overrule continued long-range strikes into Russia, and calls the EU's 27 leaders (naming Macron especially) a "ship of fools" risking their own countries' annihilation by failing to grasp how destructive Russia could be if cornered.