500 Drones on St Petersburg as Trump Waives Sanctions

Late on Friday 16 October, Donald Trump signed an executive order exempting Russia from the sanctions Congress passed only last month under the Graham Act, and he signed it, by Zelensky's account, while Russian missiles and drones were striking more than fifteen power generation and transmission sites across Ukraine in one of the largest energy attacks of the war.¹ The order came a week after the Treasury license for Russian diesel, and over the weekend a third move surfaced: the New York Times reported that the administration is pitching European governments on resuming purchases of Russian gas as part of a possible Ukraine deal, a proposal that, Rachel Blevins noted, Europe has received warily.² Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, on Meet the Press, added that Europe has plenty of Patriots and imports far more Russian products than the United States does.³ Clayton Morris put the reversal in one breath: "Washington has spent years trying to squeeze Russia's energy revenues. Now it's opening a door to Russian fuel. It will buy that Russian fuel and then basically sell a huge portion of it to Europe."⁴

Three sanctions concessions to Moscow in eight days would, in another year, have been read as the opening of a settlement. Nobody who addressed them this weekend read them that way.

The driver, John Mearsheimer argued, is the Gulf, not Ukraine. By the official estimates he cited, about 30 tankers or cargo ships have been sunk in the month of October.⁵ "He doesn't want to be responsible for causing a depression. He doesn't want to be Herbert Hoover."⁶ From that premise the rest follows. "I don't think the key issue on the table is getting a peace settlement in Ukraine at this point in time."⁷ What Trump wants from Kiev is narrower and more immediate: "So, he's using sticks with the Ukrainians. He's trying to play hardball with the Ukrainians to get the Ukrainians to stop attacking energy infrastructure inside of Russia."⁸

The sticks are not working, and the evidence for that is not subtle. "And the fact is that up to now the evidence is quite clear that Zelenskyy beats Trump at every turn," Mearsheimer said.⁹ The reported threat to limit intelligence and Starlink access for Kiev has not been carried out: "There's no question that Starlink is up and working again and we're providing intelligence to the Ukrainians and it's not even clear that we ever really cut it off."¹⁰ Blevins drew the same conclusion from the refinery strikes that have continued through Trump's energy ceasefire: "If they truly wanted it to stop, then they would cut off the data. They would not share that intelligence with Kyiv."¹¹

The clearest demonstration came over St Petersburg. By the Russian count about 500 drones were sent at the city; Alexander Mercouris put each at more than $50,000 and the whole raid at between 30 and 40 million dollars, for about ten people injured and none killed.¹² "There is no logic to this Ukrainian drone offensive. It is an expenditure of huge sums at a time of acute budgetary stress in Ukraine itself and across the entire European Union."¹³ Dmitry Peskov called the raid "some final manifestations of agony of Ukraine."¹⁴ Mercouris was less interested in the military result than in the political one. "One can't say this politely. Zelensky is putting up two fingers to Donald Trump. The president of the United States is being openly and blatantly defied by one of his proxies."¹⁵ The cost of that defiance falls on Trump's other negotiation: "Not only is that extremely humiliating, but it makes him look weak, most pertinently weak towards the Russians, who are of course ultimately the people he must negotiate with."¹⁶

The weekend's shared read, then, is that the license, the waiver and the gas pitch are a retreat from a fuel crisis rather than the first step of a peace, and that the retreat can be defeated by the very people it depends on. Mearsheimer stated the structural point without hedging: "The Europeans and the Ukrainians and large elements of the national security establishment inside the United States are arrayed against Trump. Therefore, Trump and Putin together cannot shut down the war."¹⁷ Daniel Davis, who credits neither man with a plan, described the same isolation from the other side: "So President Trump is literally acting as an independent actor here on the global stage and it's all personal with him and Putin and they're deciding God only knows what behind the scenes."¹⁸

“The Europeans and the Ukrainians and large elements of the national security establishment inside the United States are arrayed against Trump. Therefore, Trump and Putin together cannot shut down the war.”

If the concessions are not a peace offer, the gas pitch to Europe tells you what they are. The New York Times framed the proposal as one that would hand Moscow renewed influence over the continent. Blevins found the framing backwards: "Russia already has the influence. They have it by the very fact that they are in the driver's seat right now. They have it because Europe is so incredibly weak right now."¹⁹ The purpose, as she read it, is to move the war onto a different ledger: "I think that the Trump administration is working overtime right now to put the pressure on Europe to take full responsibility for Ukraine and to handle the proxy war against Russia."²⁰ And the commercial terms are part of the design: "Your goal is for Europe to handle Ukraine and to buy weapons and energy resources from the US in the process."²¹ That is the same pattern read on Saturday 17 October as a handover to Europe rather than an American exit, and it lands on a continent where, Blevins noted, Zelensky is already asking the European Union for 70 billion euros for next year.²²

Morris was skeptical that even the narrow goal, cheaper fuel, will be met on these terms. "You can change a sanctions policy with a signature, but you can't build a reliable supply chain that way."²³ His bottom line: "If Putin gets the money and China keeps the influence, somebody needs to explain what America just won, if anything."²⁴

Underneath all of it the war goes on at the pace the battlefield sets, not the one Washington sets. The strikes on the substations of western Ukraine have left Kiev in near-continuous blackout, with protests aimed at Mayor Klitschko, and Mercouris saw method in them: "The Russians now have a very clear knowledge of how this is done, and they are able to gradually and steadily choke off electric power across the whole of Ukraine."²⁵ Davis drew the conclusion that follows if the deciding is being done by artillery and the grid: "There won't then be any kind of a negotiated settlement good, ugly, or otherwise. There will only be issuing terms of surrender."²⁶ "Ukraine lost, and we lost. This will be a NATO defeat, strategic defeat."²⁷ Mearsheimer's version is older and shorter, and it explains why a president who cannot cut the assistance cannot end the war either: "You take that assistance away, this war would have ended two or three years ago."²⁸

Egypt's parliament weighs Yemen, and a $30 premium hidden in Brent

Egypt's President Sisi asked his parliament for a vote on Sunday 18 October on intervening alongside Saudi Arabia against Yemen, a request reported on Glenn Diesen's show. Larry Johnson doubted Cairo can deliver what Riyadh is buying: "Egypt has trouble feeding and operating its own troops within its own boundaries."²⁹ Mohammad Marandi said the Pakistani and Turkish contingents already in the kingdom are not an expeditionary force at all; they "are based around Riyadh for the most part and their objective is basically to protect Muhammad bin Salman and the crown more than anything else against potential uprisings."³⁰ Asked where the Gulf stands a year from now, Johnson answered without a qualifier: "MBS will become a figure of history like Bashar al-Assad."³¹

Steve Hanke argued that the Brent price on the screen understates what the Gulf war is costing. "The logistical choke point is almost as great as the strait," he said, and on top of the roughly $110 quoted for Brent "there's a $30 premium that you have to add for this increased logistical transportation problem."³² The figure that worries him more is not a price. "The oil facilities, that's just money. The desalination plants is life or death."³³

Sources

1. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · Trump signed an executive order late Friday 16 October exempting Russia from the new Graham Act sanctions, during Russia's strike on more than 15 power facilities watch ▶ 1:27
2. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · the New York Times reports the administration pitching Europe on resuming Russian gas purchases as part of a Ukraine deal watch ▶ 0:29
3. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · Bessent on Meet the Press: Europe has plenty of Patriots and imports far more Russian products than the US watch ▶ 3:38
4. Clayton Morris, Redacted · Washington squeezed Russian energy revenue for years and is now buying Russian fuel to resell to Europe watch ▶ 1:43
5. John Mearsheimer, Tom Switzer · about 30 tankers or cargo ships sunk in October by official estimates watch ▶ 33:54
6. John Mearsheimer, Tom Switzer · Trump does not want to be Herbert Hoover watch ▶ 2:26
7. John Mearsheimer, Tom Switzer · a peace settlement in Ukraine is not the key issue on the table watch ▶ 8:27
8. John Mearsheimer, Tom Switzer · Trump is using sticks to make Kiev stop hitting Russian energy infrastructure watch ▶ 3:24
9. John Mearsheimer, Tom Switzer · Zelensky beats Trump at every turn watch ▶ 5:22
10. John Mearsheimer, Tom Switzer · Starlink is up, intelligence flows, and it is unclear it was ever cut watch ▶ 6:13
11. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · if Washington wanted the refinery strikes to stop it would cut off the targeting data watch ▶ 13:14
12. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · about 500 drones at over $50,000 each, a $30 to $40 million raid, about ten injured watch ▶ 34:16
13. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · no logic to a drone offensive this costly under acute budgetary stress watch ▶ 35:20
14. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · Peskov calls the St Petersburg raid "some final manifestations of agony of Ukraine" watch ▶ 16:36
15. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · Zelensky is putting up two fingers to Trump; a proxy openly defies the president watch ▶ 37:03
16. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · the defiance makes Trump look weak toward the Russians he must negotiate with watch ▶ 37:23
17. John Mearsheimer, Tom Switzer · Europe, Ukraine and the US security establishment are arrayed against Trump; Trump and Putin together cannot shut down the war watch ▶ 7:25
18. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · Trump is acting as an independent actor and it is all personal with Putin watch ▶ 2:48
19. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · Russia already has the influence because Europe is so weak watch ▶ 11:14
20. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · the administration is working overtime to make Europe take full responsibility for Ukraine watch ▶ 14:41
21. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · the goal is for Europe to handle Ukraine and buy US weapons and energy watch ▶ 17:38
22. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · Zelensky is seeking 70 billion euros from the EU for next year watch ▶ 15:55
23. Clayton Morris, Redacted · a sanctions policy changes with a signature, a reliable supply chain does not watch ▶ 8:20
24. Clayton Morris, Redacted · if Putin gets the money and China keeps the influence, what did America win watch ▶ 8:50
25. Alexander Mercouris, Alexander Mercouris · the Russians can now steadily choke off electric power across the whole of Ukraine watch ▶ 23:15
26. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · there will be no negotiated settlement, only terms of surrender watch ▶ 0:43
27. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · Ukraine lost and we lost; a NATO strategic defeat watch ▶ 37:09
28. John Mearsheimer, Tom Switzer · without American assistance the war would have ended two or three years ago watch ▶ 25:59
29. Larry Johnson, Mario Nawfal · Egypt has trouble feeding and operating its own troops inside its own borders watch ▶ 14:32
30. Mohammad Marandi, Glenn Diesen · Pakistani and Turkish troops in Saudi Arabia are around Riyadh to protect MBS and the crown from uprisings watch ▶ 16:36
31. Larry Johnson, Mario Nawfal · a year from now MBS will be a figure of history like Bashar al-Assad watch ▶ 22:57
32. Steve Hanke, Mario Nawfal · the logistical choke point is almost as great as the strait; add a $30 premium to the quoted Brent price watch ▶ 5:37
33. Steve Hanke, Mario Nawfal · the oil facilities are just money; the desalination plants are life or death watch ▶ 18:47

By Ruins Report, a daily synthesis of what our tracked analysts said, not original reporting. Every numbered claim is sourced, dated, and timestamped above.