Iran Moves Its Schools Online and Waits for the Strike

Iranian media said on Monday 19 October that two projectiles had struck a 35 mm artillery piece at the Konarak coastal base, near the Pakistani border, wounding two service members; a US official told CNN that the United States did not carry out the attack.¹ The reports that circulated through the day, none of them confirmed, put the time at about 1 a.m. local and the likely weapon as Hellfire missiles fired from an MQ-9 Reaper,² and explosions were reported in Baluchistan the same night.³ Around that small, contested event the day's reporting stacked larger ones: Pete Hegseth's unannounced visit to Israel to meet Benjamin Netanyahu, eight days before the Israeli election, as Axios reported it;⁴ a US security alert, issued the night before for all its embassies in West Asia, warning of possible escalation between Iran and the United States;⁵ and Israeli and American fighter jets reported over southern Iraq, with Iran going on its highest alert and scrambling jets of its own.⁶ Israel votes next Tuesday, 27 October, and the United States a week after that, on 3 November. The question of the day was whether a third round of the war with Iran is coming, and whether it comes before those two dates or after them.

What a third round would look like is not much disputed. By John Mearsheimer's count the opening bombing campaign ran from 28 February to 8 April, and two rounds of tit-for-tat followed, 8 to 29 July and 30 August to 9 September.⁷ Trita Parsi noted that Israel's defense minister, Israel Katz, said on Israeli television a few days ago that Israel may strike Iran preemptively and target its oil infrastructure to push the country back 30 to 40 years.⁸ The Israelis, Parsi said, "are very very clear that round three means energy infrastructure, desalination plants, all of the different things the Israelis wanted to do on day one from round one and the US did not allow them."⁹ His conclusion: "round three is likely to be much much bigger than the previous rounds and that will be devastating for all of them."¹⁰ Mohammad Marandi expects the same scale. A renewed war "will probably be significantly more destructive than even the 40 days,"¹¹ and if Trump goes after Iranian infrastructure, he believes Iran will immediately begin striking Saudi, Emirati, Bahraini and Kuwaiti infrastructure in return.¹² Reuters, as Mario Nawfal relayed it, reports that Iran has threatened a ground incursion into one or more Gulf states if the war restarts, with Bahrain seen as the likeliest, and that the IRGC has threatened to cut undersea internet cables.¹³ Parsi's advice on those reports: "I would be very careful to easily dismiss those threats."¹⁴

On timing the split is real. Larry Johnson does not expect Washington to move before the midterms: "I don't think the US is going to launch any attacks on Iran before November 3rd."¹⁵ Konarak reads to him as the work of Baluchi militants, an irritant rather than a change in the game, and after 3 November he thinks Trump will be too weak to widen the war.¹⁶ Parsi takes the other side of the date: "I'm still of the view that there's unfortunately a significant likelihood of a major flare up before the midterm elections, perhaps even before the Israeli elections on the 27th."¹⁷ Marandi reports that this is how Tehran reads it too: "the Iranians believe that the chances that an assault will take place before the elections are substantial,"¹⁸ and the preparation is visible, with schools in southern Iran and on the Gulf islands moved online for fear of an American assault.¹⁹ He adds that Netanyahu, who was reported last week to be pressing Trump for a joint strike before 27 October, may start a war in order to delay his own election.²⁰ Scott Ritter is the most definite of the three who expect an early strike: "I think the military strike will take place before election day,"²¹ aimed at Iran's energy infrastructure, because Trump has no face-saving exit and "we are going to be moving not away from a face saving mechanism but a doubling down on stupid."²²

The dates divide them; the outcome does not. None of the five expects a third round to deliver what the first two did not, and that is the real finding of the day. Mearsheimer put it most flatly: "We have no military option,"²³ he said, calling the Konarak attack, in his word, paltry, and proof that Washington is not playing hardball with Tehran. The 40-day campaign "failed to produce victory. We're still in the war and it's October."²⁴ He also deflated the carrier count that has accompanied the week's reporting. Of the three ships cited, the George H.W. Bush is in Thailand and the Theodore Roosevelt is still in East Asia, replacing rather than reinforcing the George Washington, which leaves one or at most two carriers in the Gulf,²⁵ while American bases in the region "have been either destroyed or badly damaged" and look unlikely to be rebuilt.²⁶ As for the "symbolic" strike on Pickaxe Mountain that Tehran refused, Mearsheimer's view is that Iran will not allow it "for one second,"²⁷ and Marandi's that the mother of all bombs "is not going to change Iran's calculations and it's not going to change Iran's policy."²⁸ Ritter's description of the adversary was the sharpest: the Iranians of today are not the Iranians of June 2025, but a country emboldened by having defeated the United States in the stand-up battle.²⁹

“We are not in the driver's seat here. The Iranians are in the driver's seat.”

If the military case is this weak, why is the question of timing live at all? Parsi's answer is that the calendar is doing the work the strategy cannot: "that's how the US ends up in these endless wars because the political cost of ending them is higher than the political cost of continuing them."³⁰ Johnson's version runs through the same two capitals. Trump faces a weak position if the Republicans lose the midterms and "very well could be gone a year from now if not sooner," while Netanyahu, with prison a possibility, is desperate enough ahead of 27 October that Israel could provoke Iran to justify an all-out strike.³¹ Whichever date proves right, Tehran's terms do not move with it. Marandi says Iran will not normalize trade through Hormuz until the memorandum of understanding is implemented,³² and Mearsheimer describes that memorandum, signed on 17 June, as "a surrender document. It recognizes the fact that Iran won."³³ Round three, if it comes, is a decision about two elections more than about Iran, which is why analysts who agree on the balance of forces can still disagree on the date.

Who else put a date on round three?

Larry Wilkerson, Dialogue Works

Things are "getting worse and worse" and leading to a strike; before the election "looks less likely," after it "looks more likely."

AE

Alan Eyre, Mario Nawfal

Military strikes come "certainly after the midterms and less of a chance before the midterms and before Netanyahu's October 27th election"; it is "from highly unlikely to wildly improbable that the Iranians will move their red lines."

Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive

"Lots of movement in combat power in the region makes it very likely that the US is going to try to do something next."

What else moved: France reaches for curfews and Putin proposes a table of three

Protests in France that began over teacher shortages and grew into a cost-of-living movement turned into violent riots over the weekend of 17 and 18 October, with destruction also reported in Milan, and France is moving toward curfews.³⁴ George Szamuely, noting a French deficit of about 6 percent of GDP against the EU's 3 percent target and a presidential election about six months away, traced the anger to energy. France and other European countries "are going to have to pay four times as much for their energy coming as does from the United States than they were when they were getting it from Russia,"³⁵ and "now I think the chickens are coming home to roost. And I think Europe is now really beginning to suffer as a consequence of the sanctions that it imposed on Russia."³⁶

Daniel Davis, citing the Wall Street Journal, reports that Vladimir Putin has floated a Trump-Putin-Xi summit on Chinese soil to discuss a Ukraine settlement, with neither Zelensky nor any European leader at the table; Dmitry Peskov said the issue had been raised but that no specific proposals were discussed. Davis's reading: "Putin, with the leverage that he has, is starting to just masterfully split the United States away from Europe, split the United States away from Ukraine."³⁷

Sources

1. Nima Alkhorshid, Dialogue Works · reports Iranian media's account of two projectiles hitting a 35 mm artillery piece at the Konarak coastal base, wounding two, and a US official's statement to CNN that the US did not carry out the attack watch ▶ 1:01
2. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · relays unconfirmed reports of a strike on Konarak at about 1 a.m. local on 19 October, possibly Hellfire missiles from an MQ-9 Reaper watch ▶ 0:34
3. Mario Nawfal, Mario Nawfal · reports the Konarak claim, the US denial to CNN and explosions reported in Baluchistan the same night watch ▶ 5:15
4. Mario Nawfal, Mario Nawfal · reports, per Axios, that Hegseth made an unannounced visit to Israel to meet Netanyahu eight days before the Israeli election watch ▶ 12:07
5. Nima Alkhorshid, Dialogue Works · reports that the US issued a security alert the night before for all its embassies in West Asia, warning of possible Iran-US escalation watch ▶ 1:54
6. Mario Nawfal, Mario Nawfal · reports Israeli and American fighter jets over southern Iraq, with Iran on highest alert and scrambling its own jets watch ▶ 0:33
7. John Mearsheimer, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · dates the opening campaign to 28 February to 8 April and the two tit-for-tat rounds to 8 to 29 July and 30 August to 9 September watch ▶ 2:08
8. Trita Parsi, Mario Nawfal · notes Israel Katz's televised remark that Israel may strike Iran preemptively, targeting oil infrastructure to push it back 30 to 40 years watch ▶ 3:08
9. Trita Parsi, Mario Nawfal · the Israelis are "very very clear" that round three means energy infrastructure and desalination plants, what they wanted on day one and the US did not allow watch ▶
10. Trita Parsi, Mario Nawfal · round three "is likely to be much much bigger than the previous rounds" and devastating for all watch ▶ 9:02
11. Mohammad Marandi, Canadian Prepper · a renewed war "will probably be significantly more destructive than even the 40 days" watch ▶ 30:41
12. Mohammad Marandi, Canadian Prepper · if Trump goes after Iranian infrastructure, Iran will immediately start striking Saudi, Emirati, Bahraini and Kuwaiti infrastructure watch ▶ 0:22
13. Mario Nawfal, Mario Nawfal · relays Reuters on an Iranian threat of a ground incursion into one or more Gulf states, Bahrain the likeliest, and an IRGC threat to cut undersea internet cables watch ▶ 26:10
14. Trita Parsi, Mario Nawfal · "I would be very careful to easily dismiss those threats" watch ▶ 12:16
15. Larry Johnson, Dialogue Works · "I don't think the US is going to launch any attacks on Iran before November 3rd" watch ▶ 9:06
16. Larry Johnson, Dialogue Works · Konarak is likely Baluchi militants, an irritant not a game changer; after the midterms Trump is too weak to widen the war watch ▶ 45:20
17. Trita Parsi, Mario Nawfal · a "significant likelihood of a major flare up before the midterm elections, perhaps even before the Israeli elections on the 27th" watch ▶ 6:00
18. Mohammad Marandi, Canadian Prepper · "the Iranians believe that the chances that an assault will take place before the elections are substantial" watch ▶ 0:00
19. Mohammad Marandi, Canadian Prepper · schools in southern Iran and on the Gulf islands have moved online amid fears of a US assault watch ▶ 28:24
20. Mohammad Marandi, Canadian Prepper · Netanyahu wants Trump to attack Iran before the 27 October election and may start a war to delay it watch ▶ 27:12
21. Scott Ritter, Judging Freedom · "I think the military strike will take place before election day" watch ▶ 17:36
22. Scott Ritter, Judging Freedom · Trump has no face-saving exit; expect "a doubling down on stupid" with strikes on energy infrastructure watch ▶ 17:16
23. John Mearsheimer, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · "We have no military option"; the Konarak attack was paltry and shows the US is not playing hardball watch ▶ 7:17
24. John Mearsheimer, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · the 40-day strategic bombing campaign "failed to produce victory. We're still in the war and it's October" watch ▶ 5:02
25. John Mearsheimer, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · the George H.W. Bush is in Thailand and the Theodore Roosevelt is replacing, not reinforcing, the George Washington, leaving one or at most two carriers in the Gulf watch ▶ 6:23
26. John Mearsheimer, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · US bases in the Gulf "have been either destroyed or badly damaged" and are unlikely to be rebuilt watch ▶ 28:43
27. John Mearsheimer, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · Iran will not allow a symbolic MOAB strike followed by a US declaration of victory "for one second" watch ▶ 11:09
28. Mohammad Marandi, Canadian Prepper · the mother of all bombs "is not going to change Iran's calculations and it's not going to change Iran's policy" watch ▶ 29:37
29. Scott Ritter, Judging Freedom · "The Iranians are not the Iranians of June 2025," but a new Iran emboldened by having defeated the United States in the stand-up battle watch ▶ 15:42
30. Trita Parsi, Mario Nawfal · the US ends up in endless wars "because the political cost of ending them is higher than the political cost of continuing them" watch ▶ 32:55
31. Larry Johnson, Dialogue Works · Trump "very well could be gone a year from now if not sooner" if Republicans lose the midterms; Netanyahu, possibly facing prison, is desperate before 27 October and Israel could provoke Iran to justify an all-out strike watch ▶ 7:16
32. Mohammad Marandi, Canadian Prepper · Iran will not normalize trade through Hormuz until the memorandum of understanding is implemented watch ▶ 32:56
33. John Mearsheimer, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · the 17 June memorandum of understanding is "a surrender document. It recognizes the fact that Iran won" watch ▶ 11:37
34. Rachel Blevins, Rachel Blevins · reports that cost-of-living protests in France turned into violent riots over the weekend of 17 and 18 October, with destruction also reported in Milan, and that France is moving toward curfews watch ▶
35. George Szamuely, Rachel Blevins · France and other European countries now "pay four times as much for their energy" from the United States as they did from Russia watch ▶ 6:27
36. George Szamuely, Rachel Blevins · "the chickens are coming home to roost"; Europe is beginning to suffer from the sanctions it imposed on Russia watch ▶ 11:54
37. Daniel Davis, Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · citing the Wall Street Journal, reports Putin floated a Trump-Putin-Xi summit on Chinese soil without Zelensky or Europe; Peskov said no specific proposals were discussed; Putin is "masterfully" splitting the US from Europe and Ukraine watch ▶ 0:40

By Ruins Report, a daily synthesis of what our tracked analysts said, not original reporting. Every numbered claim is sourced, dated, and timestamped above.