Mark Sleboda

Mark Sleboda is a Moscow-based international affairs and security analyst originally from Pennsylvania, with a background as a US Navy nuclear reactor operator and graduate study in international relations at the London School of Economics. He has taught international relations and security studies at Moscow State University and appears widely as a commentator on geopolitics and military affairs across independent and Russian media. His analysis leans heavily on operational and military detail, generally sympathetic to Russia's strategic position while explicitly rejecting conspiratorial framing.

X The Real Politick Boosty

Where they stand

A short read of where Mark Sleboda lands on each front we follow, drawn from their recent appearances and refreshed whenever they turn up in a debrief.

Iran

Iran holds escalation dominance in the Strait of Hormuz; the US lacks the munitions, interceptors and logistics to sustain or win an extended exchange. The IRGC has concluded diplomacy with the Trump administration is pointless and prefers controlled escalation while waiting out the term.

as of 2026-09-05

Ukraine & Russia

Russia holds overwhelming momentum; Ukrainian defences are crumbling on several fronts and the Black Sea blockade and strike campaign are crippling Kiev's economy. Nothing Witkoff and Kushner can offer would be accepted while Russia believes it is winning.

as of 2026-09-05

Israel

US support for Israel is structurally unbreakable in the near term despite record public criticism and Israeli demands (a ground invasion of Iran) that Washington cannot fulfil.

as of 2026-09-05

East Asia

China's rare-earth and lithium leverage already forced Trump to back off the trade war, so Washington will not risk secondary sanctions on China's Iranian oil purchases.

as of 2026-09-05

American power

US posture in the Gulf is badly overstretched (munitions shortages, the Diego Garcia supply line, internal Pentagon and Navy dissent), but the alternative is not ready either: BRICS+ and the SCO expanded too fast and are paralysed by consensus among fence-sitters.

as of 2026-09-05

The global economy

The US still holds the SWIFT and financial heights, so no near-term collapse of the financial order; but the sanctions campaigns against Iran are largely symbolic, almost nothing has actually been sanctioned, mirroring five years of failed pressure on Russia.

as of 2026-09-05

Recent appearances

US warships under fire; Hormuz escalation dominance; Witkoff-Kushner; BRICS paralysis

Dialogue Works (host: Nima Alkhorshid) · 2026-09-05

2026-08-16 · with Canadian Prepper

Iran "geoeconomic game of chicken" · SPR depletion · munitions math