Robert Pape
Robert Pape is a professor of political science at the University of Chicago and founding director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST), which studies suicide terrorism, coercion, and political violence. A longtime scholar of air campaigns, military coercion, and naval blockades, he has modeled a hypothetical US/Israel bombing of Iran with students since 2005, writes for Foreign Affairs, and publishes the Escalation Trap Substack.
Where they stand
A short read of where Robert Pape lands on each front we follow, drawn from their recent appearances and refreshed whenever they turn up in a debrief.
Iran
Trump is losing the Iran war as Iran gains power and control; Iran will not concede after the midterms and will keep Hormuz control and its enriched uranium
as of 2026-11-04
Ukraine & Russia
Neither Trump nor Democrats have influence on Putin; Russia pursuing power-grid campaign, Ukraine hitting back at Russian energy, escalation ahead
as of 2026-11-04
Israel
Netanyahu is eager to launch major bombing of Iran, adding to restart risk
as of 2026-11-04
East Asia
Reframes Taiwan: it could symmetrically interdict China’s own seaborne trade — Beijing’s lesson is caution, not confidence.
as of ~2026-08-22
American power
Midterm loss is a historic humiliation that will shatter the Trump presidency; Trump has unfettered military control for two months, then Democratic Congress shares the political timeline
as of 2026-11-04
The global economy
Oil will not return to $60 anytime soon; Iran's Hormuz leverage keeps energy prices elevated and ripples through the global economy
as of 2026-11-04
Recent appearances
What’s Next For America After Last Night’s Landslide Win For Democrats?
Redacted (Clayton Morris) · 2026-11-04
2026-11-04 · Redacted (Clayton Morris)watch ↗
“The Next 60 Days Could Be Catastrophic!” Prof. Robert Pape Warns of Iran War Escalation
2026-02-25 · Escalation Trap (Substack)
"The Smart Bomb Trap"
2025-01 · Foreign Affairs
"Israel’s Feudal Air Campaign" (pre-Fordow-strike)
~2026-08-22 · Decoding Geopolitics (host: Dominic)
"Smart bomb trap" · the escalation trap · the second precision revolution (Part 1 of 2)