Richard Sakwa
Richard Sakwa is emeritus professor of Russian and European politics at the University of Kent and one of the leading Western scholars of Russia and European affairs, with a PhD from Birmingham's Centre for Russian and East European Studies. He is the author of The Russo-Ukrainian War: Follies of Empire. A recurring guest on the Daniel Davis / Deep Dive show, he reads the war through the deep history of NATO enlargement rather than the day's headlines.
Where they stand
A short read of where Richard Sakwa lands on each front we follow, drawn from their recent appearances and refreshed whenever they turn up in a debrief.
Iran
Air-only strikes will not break Iran or change its calculus; Araghchi is right that the US would suffer a greater strategic failure; regime destruction is madness
as of 2026-10-22
Ukraine & Russia
Zelensky is in a Diem situation, maximalist and detached; the war is a losing one for Ukraine; ceasefire as framed is only an armistice Moscow will never accept
as of 2026-10-22
Israel
US foreign policy is made in Tel Aviv; Trump in alliance with a revisionist Israel that wants to destroy Iran; Israel is a boiling volcano in the region
as of 2026-10-22
East Asia
China's restraint and quiet mobilization (reserves, stockpiles) is a delay of an inevitable clash with the political West, but staying in the background may become untenable
as of 2026-10-22
American power
The 1945 order is crumbling; the UN is being degraded by the political West and slides into irrelevance like the League of Nations, though it can be revived with reform; Europe has self-marginalized
as of 2026-10-22
The global economy
War and sanctions are feeding inflation and cost-of-living crises in the UK and Europe; unilateral sanctions are illegal without UN Security Council authorization
as of 2026-10-22
Recent appearances
The Fatal Assumption That Tehran Will Break
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive · 2026-10-22