Ray McGovern

Ray McGovern spent 27 years as a CIA analyst, chairing National Intelligence Estimates and, from 1981 to 1985, delivering the President's Daily Brief one-on-one to senior Reagan administration officials, including Vice President George H. W. Bush. In 2003 he co-founded Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), the group of former intelligence officers that challenged the Iraq WMD case, and he has since been one of the most persistent critics of US intelligence being bent to policy. He appears regularly on Dialogue Works, Judging Freedom and similar independent programs, reading Washington, Moscow and Tel Aviv from the perspective of a career analyst.

raymcgovern.com X

Where they stand

A short read of where Ray McGovern lands on each front we follow, drawn from their recent appearances and refreshed whenever they turn up in a debrief.

Iran

Counsels Iran, like Russia and China, to proceed at a measured pace and avoid provoking a president he reads as cornered and unpredictable: "We are dealing with a potentially cornered man who could lash out." His advice to Tehran is that it already holds the upper hand and should not risk something like sinking a US carrier. "Look, do this gradually. You got the upper hand."

as of 2026-09-13

Ukraine & Russia

Reads Russia as advancing at roughly double its earlier pace and expects it to hold out for a settlement that removes Zelensky and establishes a new multilateral European security architecture including the United States, rather than settling for a ceasefire or a buffer zone. Expects Russia to hold all of the Donbass by the end of the year.

as of 2026-09-13

Israel

Israel and the US face a coalescing Turkey-Saudi-Pakistan defence alliance reaching toward Egypt and Iran, and Netanyahu remains more likely than not to use a nuclear weapon in extremis without asking Washington. A Haaretz report says the UAE warned Netanyahu before October 7, and McGovern reads that as Netanyahu letting the attack happen for domestic political advantage, leaving him more politically exposed than ever. Whether he still holds sway over Trump will decide how far the war on Iran goes.

as of 2026-09-10

East Asia

Russia and China are bound by what amounts to a mutual defence treaty, leaving the US the short leg of a once-balanced triangle.

as of 2026-09-06

American power

Argues European elites are manufacturing Russian-threat pretexts, citing the Leipzig drone incident dismissed by Bulgaria's prime minister, in a pattern he compares to 1939, even as Putin insists there is no threat. Reads the transatlantic order as visibly fraying and a broader tectonic shift away from American centrality as underway: "The tectonic shift is becoming more and more evident."

as of 2026-09-13

The global economy

Bessent underestimates how much Russia and China will backstop Iran against secondary sanctions.

as of 2026-09-06

Recent appearances

Trump opens Iran-Arab talks; Putin says there is no Russian threat while the EU braces for war (w/ Nima Alkhorshid)

Dialogue Works (host: Nima Alkhorshid) · 2026-09-13

2026-09-10 · Judging Freedomwatch ↗

INTEL Roundtable w/ Larry Johnson & 9/11 whistleblower Coleen Rowley

2026-09-06 · Dialogue Works (host: Nima Alkhorshid)watch ↗

Putin's seven minutes with the envoys; a two-day pause; the Mecca alliance

2026-08-29 · Dialogue Works (host: Nima Alkhorshid)watch ↗

The Russians are winning; the CIA director's rushed Moscow visit; NATO finished