Peter Zeihan

The Iran war used up the majority of US long-range precision munitions — "the last war the US will be able to fight in the Eastern Hemisphere for at least another decade."

Skeptical "China collapse is always 20 years away" takes miss that it may already be underway: Beijing has admitted overcounting its population by at least 100M, with unofficial estimates as high as 500–600M "never born." Xi is the most isolated leader in Chinese history (no real advisor in 8 years, purging his own military) — a Taiwan invasion is "pure fantasy" regardless of paper order-of-battle, because China lacks the command capability to project power past the first island chain. Against the grain, he sees no ascendant multipolar China at all.

The US-led order is ending, hit from every possible angle by Navy capacity shortfalls, domestic political dysfunction, secondary powers outgrowing the globalized system, and depopulation killing consumption. This is not a plan, desperation, or doctrine but sheer physical incapacity (about 60 destroyers where about 600 are needed): the US takes a forced decade-plus (probably closer to three) break from global power projection, not by choice, returning only if directly attacked and pushed onto a war footing. Old heavy platforms like tanks and jets ("a generation" to build at scale) are secondary now; drones and nuclear weapons are the only systems a demographically hollowed, capability-poor Europe can field on a short timeline, making the near-term strategic picture qualitatively new ("n equals zero," no historical precedent).

Dismisses BRICS/de-dollarization/multipolarity as incoherent ("pretty stupid") — a multipolar world only functions if a unipolar power actively chooses to make it so daily. Globalization is ending primarily via demographic collapse (no young consumers, no mid-career savers/capital) rather than the dollar being displaced by a rival currency bloc. On the dollar itself he is the clear contrarian here: it isn't going anywhere.